Backcasting as a policy tool: the role of values

Abstract

Backcasting, in contrast to forecasting, is a technique of policy analysis that was developed with respect to energy policy in the 1970s and that, since then, has been expanded in the scope of its application. This expansion has especially been to areas – such as sustainability and environmental issues – where future trends are themselves deemed to be part of the problem. In the past decade, a more participatory, ‘second generation’ approach to backcasting has also emerged. This essay reviews these developments, particularly examines the application of backcasting to water policy, and indicates a potential for backcasting to be developed more generally as a policy tool. A central point is that backcasting, by making explicit the role of values, is especially relevant to the development of critical policy studies.

Keywords:

• backcasting; forecasting
• energy policy
• water policy
• sustainability
• policy tools
• values