Good times, bad times: A study of the future path of U. S. fertility

Abstract

A simple version of Easterlin's relative‐cohort‐size model of fertility is presented and used to forecast fertility. The model tracks postwar U.S. experience closely and predicts an upturn in fertility in the 1980's. To illustrate the model's long‐run properties, births are forecast to the year 2070. The forecast shows pronounced every‐other generation cycles in births suggesting that, unless conditions change, concern with the economic consequences of declining population growth and crises in education and the youth labor market may be recurring features of the U.S. system.