Development, “welfare,” and fertility: A simple macroanalysis

Abstract

Accepting the theoretical position that desired family size is likely to diminish as economic modernization occurs, the author analyzes the association between fertility and development using recent national data from less developed countries. Measures of income and equality are combined to provide an index of population “welfare.” Multiple and cross‐lagged correlations are used to demonstrate the magnitude and nature of the relationship between welfare and fertility rates. Despite inadequacies of the data, high negative correlations are obtained, and evidence is advanced to show that the direction of causation is from welfare to fertility.