Simulation optimization for allocation of epidemic-control resources

Abstract

We consider the problem of resource allocation (RA) in the control of epidemics where a fixed budget is allocated among competing healthcare interventions to achieve the best health benefits, and propose a simulation-optimization framework to address a general form of the problem. While traditional approaches to the epidemic RA problem suffer from restrictive assumptions to facilitate exact analytical solutions, a simulation-based technique relaxes such assumptions and provides a more realistic representation of the epidemic. Coupling the simulation model with optimization techniques enables us to analyze the behavior of RA outcomes with regard to different investment strategies and seek optimal allocations. We discuss implementation steps and illustrate our approach for an RA problem in the control of influenza pandemic with several interacting healthcare interventions.

Keywords:

• Epidemic modeling
• resource allocation
• simulation optimization
• response-surface methodology

Acknowledgment

We acknowledge and thank Dr.Margaret Brandeau for her interesting work on the epidemic RA problem and valuable suggestions that affected our research ideas. We also thank the two anonymous referees for their feedback and helpful recommendations in improving the manuscript.