Probabilistic assessment of damage and losses on buildings under strong winds in Mexico

Abstract

The article presents a probabilistic criteria for the damage and loss assessment of buildings exposed to strong wind hazard. The criteria include the development of fragility curves, within the Federal Emergency Management Agency style, for appropriate damage states on a hotel building and contents due to the loss of nonstructural elements, like facades and the partial or total loss of contents because of water infiltration. The loss estimation includes loss components like the business interruption due to repairs/reconstruction work and, throughout a new estimation that considers mitigation measures to upgrade the building, it is shown that these measures reduce the loss in a significant level. The probabilistic description of wind-induced pressure on facades and windows resorts on the wind velocity distribution, and their resistances consider data and statistics from manufacturers. The calculation of failure probabilities makes use of Monte Carlo simulations for the considered modes: windows/façade anchorage failure, glass braking due to wind pressure and impact of airborne debris. The probabilistic distribution of rainfall, given the occurrence of a hurricane and the subsequent water infiltration, serves to assess damages on structures under strong wind hazard. A hotel building recently damaged by the hurricane Odile in Baja California Sur, México is used to illustrate the formulation. The results may help to promote funds allocation for hurricanes and to propose improvements to the current wind design code in México.

Keywords:

• Wind-induced damage
• wind fragility
• damage states
• loss of contents
• business interruption

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.