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ABSTRACT
Resolving armed conflict by forging an inclusive political settlement is the contemporary paradigm of international peacebuilding. War-to-peace transitions are envisioned as a sequenced process, cumulating in a signed comprehensive peace agreement as the central cornerstone on the pathway to normal politics. However, the reality of peace processes appears ungoverned. While peace negotiations may succeed in formalising political unsettlement at play and to tame violence, they regularly fail in resolving the radical disagreement at the heart of the conflict. Liberal peace governance, resting on the pillars of settlement, resolution, and relation, is unlikely to deliver its promised outcomes. The irresolvable discrepancy between the promise of liberal peace and its inability to deliver is the background against which peace ungovernance emerges. It operates under the premise of non-closure in enduring transitions, where time, space, and relationality are not subject to an agreed common understanding, but elements of strategy and politics.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 In the course of this article, ‘peace-making’ is understood as the effort to forge a negotiated settlement with the aim to end the armed conflict, whereas ‘peacebuilding’ refers to broader measures designed to prevent a relapse and to create the conditions for a ‘self-sustaining peace’, aka normal politics. See Oliver Ramsbotham, ‘Reflections on UN Post-Settlement Peacebuilding’ (2000) 7(1) International Peacekeeping 169.
2 Roberto Belloni, ‘Hybrid Peace Governance: Its Emergence and Significance’ (2012) 18(1) Global Governance 24.
3 The term ‘political settlement’ is distinct from a ‘peace settlement’. Political settlements are not referring to signed agreements but to the underlying institutionalised framework of a polity. For a useful introduction see Tim Kelsall, ‘Towards a Universal Political Settlement Concept: A Response to Mushtaq Khan’ (2018) 117(469) African Affairs 656.
4 Christine Bell and Jan Pospisil, ‘Navigating Inclusion in Transitions from Conflict: The Formalised Political Unsettlement’ (2017) 29(5) Journal of International Development 576.
5 The notion of ‘radical disagreement’ has been introduced by Oliver Ramsbotham. See, for instance, Oliver Ramsbotham, Transforming Violent Conflict: Radical Disagreement, Dialogue and Survival (Routledge 2010).
6 Roger Mac Ginty, International Peacebuilding and Local Resistance: Hybrid Forms of Peace (Palgrave Macmillan 2011).
7 Ruth Henig, The Peace That Never Was. A History of the League of Nations (Haus Publishing, 2019).
8 Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Essay (George Allen & Unwin Ltd 1795[1917]) 134–35.
9 Critically: Christopher Layne, ‘Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace’ (1994) 19(2) International Security 5.
10 On the emergence of this duty, see Kalevi J Holsti, Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order, 1648–1989 (Cambridge University Press 1991).
11 Mary Kaldor, New & Old Wars (Polity Press, 2nd edn 2006).
12 Michael S Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (United States Institute of Peace 1996) 38.
13 On the definition of political settlements in this context see Jonathan Di John and James Putzel, Political Settlements: Issues Paper (University of Birmingham 2009).
14 See, for instance, Luc Reychler and Thania Paffenholz, eds, Peacebuilding – A Field Guide (Lynne Rienner Publishers 2001).
15 Cedric de Coning, ‘Mediation and Peacebuilding: SRSGs and DSRSGs in Integrated Missions’ (2010) 16(2) Global Governance 281.
16 See, for instance, Thania Paffenholz and Nicholas Ross, ‘Inclusive Peace Processes – an Introduction’ (2015) 1 Development Dialogue 28.
17 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) (31 May 2011) PA-X peace agreements database, document no 853.
18 Final Agreement to End the Armed Conflict and Build a Stable and Lasting Peace (24 November 2016) PA-X peace agreements database, document no 1845.
19 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) (17 August 2015) PA-X peace agreements database, document no 1357.
20 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) (12 September 2018) PA-X peace agreements database, document no 2112.
21 Outcome Documents from the Conclusion of the Kampala Dialogue between the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 (12 December 2013) PA-X peace agreements database, document no 793.
22 Inter-Guinean Political Dialogue, Agreement of 12 October 2016 (12 October 2016) PA-X peace agreement database, document no 1915; compared with the other agreements, however, this is certainly to be rated a borderline ‘comprehensive peace agreement’.
23 Kevin P Clements, ‘Authoritarian Populism and Atavistic Nationalism: 21st-Century Challenges to Peacebuilding and Development’ (2018) 13(3) Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 1.
24 Thomas Carothers and Oren Samet-Marram, The New Global Marketplace of Political Change (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2015).
25 Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (Free Press 1992).
26 Fukuyama describes his argument as such: ‘liberal democracy may constitute the “end point of mankind’s ideological evolution” and the “final form of human government”, and as such constituted the “end of history”’, Fukuyama, The End of History (n 26) xi.
27 See, for instance, Roland Paris, ‘Saving Liberal Peacebuilding’ (2010) 36(2) Review of International Studies 337.
28 Ana E Juncos, ‘Resilience in peacebuilding: Contesting Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity’ (2018) 39(4) Contemporary Security Policy 559.
29 Nina Caspersen, Peace Agreements: Finding Solutions to Intra-State Conflicts (Polity Press 2017) 1.
30 Sean Molloy and Christine Bell, ‘How Peace Agreements Provide for Implementation’ PA-X Report (University of Edinburgh, Political Settlements Research Programme 2019).
31 The data project is accessible under: ‘Peace Accords Matrix’ (University of Notre Dame) online: https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/.
32 Madhav Joshi and Jason Michael Quinn, ‘Implementing the Peace: The Aggregate Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements and Peace Duration after Intrastate Armed Conflict’ (2017) 47(4) British Journal of Political Science 869.
33 See, for instance, Sida, Manual for Conflict Analysis. Methods Document (Sida, Division for Peace and Security through Development Cooperation 2006).
34 Siân Herbert, Conflict analysis: Topic Guide (GSDRC, University of Birmingham 2017).
35 See, for instance, Jonathan Goodhand, ‘Violent Conflict, Poverty and Chronic Poverty’ Chronic Poverty Research Centre Working Paper No 6 (CPRC 2001); Mats Berdal and David M Malone (eds), Greed & Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (Lynne Rienner Publishers 2000).
36 Francis Fukuyama, State-Building: Governance and World Order in the Twenty-First Century (Profile Books 2005); OECD DAC, Concepts and Dilemmas of State-Building in Fragile Situations: From Fragility to Resilience (OECD 2008).
37 See, for instance, Ashraf Ghani and Claire Lockhart, Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World (Oxford University Press 2009).
38 Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’ (2004) 56(4) Oxford Economic Papers 563.
39 See, for instance, Gwynne Dyer, Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats (Oneworld Publications 2011); Victor Asal, Michael Findley, James A Piazza et al, ‘Political Exclusion, Oil, and Ethnic Armed Conflict’ (2015) 60(8) Journal of Conflict Resolution 1343.
40 Confer Alex de Waal, ‘Inclusion in Peacemaking: From Moral Claim to Political Fact’ in Pamela Aall and Chester A. Crocker (eds), The Fabric of Peace in Africa: Looking Beyond the State (Centre for International Governance Innovation 2017) 165–86.
41 Lant Pritchett and Michael Woodcock, ‘Solution when the Solution is the Problem: Arraying the Disarray in Development’ (2004) 32(2) World Development 191.
42 Edward Newman and Oliver Richmond, ‘Peace Building and Spoilers’ (2006) 6(1) Conflict, Security & Development 101.
43 Christine Bell, Navigating Inclusion in Peace Settlements: Human Rights and the Creation of the Common Good (The British Academy 2017).
44 Michael Zürn, A Theory of Global Governance: Authority, Legitimacy, and Contestation (Oxford University Press 2018) 27–30.
45 Christine Bell, What We Talk about Then We Talk about Political Settlements: Towards Inclusive and Open Political Settlements in an Era of Disillusionment (Political Settlements Research Programme 2015).
46 Christine Bell and Kimana Zulueta-Fülscher, Sequencing Peace Agreements and Constitutions in the Political Settlements Process (International IDEA, Political Settlements Research Programme 2016).
47 Christine Bell and Sanja Badanjak, ‘Introducing PA-X: A New Peace Agreement Database and Dataset’ (2019) 56(3) Journal of Peace Research 452.
48 David Chandler, Peacebuilding: The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1997–2017 (Palgrave Macmillan 2017).
49 Roger Mac Ginty and Oliver P Richmond, ‘The Local Turn in Peace Building: A Critical Agenda for Peace’ (2013) 34(5) Third World Quarterly 763.
50 See, for example, Helen Young and Lisa Goldman (eds), Livelihoods, Natural Resources, and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding (Earthscan by Routledge 2015).
51 For a critical take see David Chandler, ‘The Uncritical Critique of Liberal Peace’ (2010) 36(S1) Review of International Studies 137.
52 See United Nations and The World Bank, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (The World Bank 2018), which incorporates many of these critical accounts.
53 Roger Mac Ginty, ‘Everyday Peace: Bottom-Up and Local Agency in Conflict-Affected Societies’ (2014) 45(6) Security Dialogue 548.
54 Confer Elisa Randazzo, ‘The Paradoxes of the “Everyday”: Scrutinising the Local Turn in Peace Building’ (2016) 37(8) Third World Quarterly 1351.
55 Oliver P Richmond, Peace Formation and Political Order in Conflict Affected Societies (Oxford University Press 2016).
56 Richmond (n 58) 122.
57 See also Anna K Jarstad and Roberto Belloni, ‘Introducing Hybrid Peace Governance: Impact and Prospects of Liberal Peacebuilding’ (2012) 18(1) Global Governance 1; Pol Bargues-Pedreny, Deferring Peace in International Statebuilding: Difference, Resilience and Critique (Routledge 2018).
58 Elisa Randazzo, ‘Post-Conflict Reconstruction, the Local, and the Indigenous’ in Nicolas Lemay-Hébert (ed), Handbook on Intervention and Statebuilding (Edward Elgar Publishing 2019) 30–40.
59 Nicolas Lemay-Hébert and Gëzim Visoka, ‘Normal Peace: A New Strategic Narrative of Intervention’ (2017) 5(3) Politics and Governance 146.
60 Christine Bell and Jan Pospisil, ‘Navigating Inclusion in Transitions from Conflict: The Formalised Political Unsettlement’ (2017) 29(5) Journal of International Development 576.
61 Michael Barnett and Christoph Zürcher, ‘The Peacebuilder’s Contract: How External Statebuilding Reinforces Weak Statehood’ in Roland Paris and Timothy D Sisk (eds), The Dilemmas of Statebuilding: Confronting the Contradictions of Postwar Peace Operations (Routledge 2009) 23–52.
62 See, for instance, Roberto Belloni, State Building and International Intervention in Bosnia (Routledge 2007), 151–72.
63 Arjun Appadurai, Modernity at Large: Cultural Dimensions of Globalization (University of Minnesota Press 1996) 33.
64 Alex de Waal, The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power (Polity Press 2015).
65 Jan Pospisil, ‘The South Sudanese Peace Agreement and the Issue of States’ (Political Settlements Research Programme opinion blog, 5 February 2020) online: <www.politicalsettlements.org>.
66 Alex de Waal, ‘Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement: Theories of Change’ in Laura James, Sarah Nouwen and Sarath Srinivasan (eds), Making and Breaking Peace in Sudan: Ten Years After the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (British Academy forthcoming 2020).
67 Bargués-Pedreny (n 60) 142.
68 See Bargués-Pedreny (n 60) 143.
69 Laurie Nathan, ‘The Failure of the Darfur Mediation’ (2007) 6(4) Ethnopolitics 495; see also Alex de Waal, Alan Boswell, David Deng, Rachel Ibreck, Matthew Benson, and Jan Pospisil, South Sudan: The Politics of Delay, Conflict Research Programme and Political Settlements Research Programme Memo, 3 December 2019 (London School of Economics, CRP 2019).
70 Appadurai (n 66) 33.
71 See de Waal et al (n 72) 2.
72 Depending on the source, this saying is either presented as having developed in Sub-Saharan Africa or as being an old Pashtu proverb from Afghanistan. Given that time is a socially contingent and contested process, especially in wartime, both explanations sound equally possible. Confer Mary L Dudziak, ‘Law, War, and the History of Time’ (2010) 98 California Law Review 1669.
73 See the contributions in Annika Björkdahl and Susanne Buckley-Zistel (eds), Spatializing Peace and Conflict: Mapping the Production of Places, Sites and Scales of Violence (Palgrave Macmillan 2016).
74 Jan Pospisil, Laura Wise, and Christine Bell, Untangling Conflict: Local Peace Agreements in Contemporary Armed Violence (ASPR Report, Political Settlements Research Programme 2020) 4.
75 Pospisil, Wise, and Bell (n 77).
76 Mary Kaldor, ‘The Phenomenon of Civicness and Researching Its Advancement’ (Conflict Research Programme blog, 22 May 2019) online: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/crp/.
77 Christine Bell, ‘“It’s Law Jim, but not as we know it”: The Public Law Techniques of Ungovernance’ (2020) Transnational Legal Theory, this volume.
78 Jan Pospisil, Peace in Political Unsettlement: Beyond Solving Conflict (Palgrave Macmillan 2019).
79 See Pospisil (n 81) 132–38.
80 See de Waal (n 69).
81 Joseph A Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Harper Perennial, 3rd edn, 2008).
82 For a critical appraisal see de Waal (n 42).
83 David Chandler, Resilience: The Governance of Complexity (Routledge 2014).
84 Ana E Juncos and Jonathan Joseph, ‘Resilient Peace: Exploring the Theory and Practice of Resilience in Peacebuilding Interventions’ (2020) 14(3) Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 289.
85 OECD, State of Fragility 2018 (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2018) 6.
86 See, for instance, Pol Bargués-Pedreny and Maria Martin de Almagro, ‘Prevention from Afar: Gendering Resilience and Sustaining Hope in Post-UNMIL Liberia’ (2020) 14(3) Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 327.
87 World Bank and United Nations, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (World Bank 2018) xxiv–xxv.
88 Jan Pospisil and Christine Bell, ‘On Selling “Principled Pragmatism” in Transitions from Violent Conflict’ (Political Settlements Research Programme Opinion Blog, 18 December 2017) online: <www.politicalsettlements.org>.
89 Stabilisation Unit, The UK Government’s Approach to Stabilisation: A Guide for Policy Makers and Practitioners (HM Government 2019).
90 See Stabilisation Unit (n 92) 22.
91 Thomas Carothers, ‘The End of the Transition Paradigm’ (2002) 13(1) Journal of Democracy 5.