Investment consequences of the Paris climate agreement^*

* A talk based on an earlier version of this paper was given at the 1st Global Conference on Stranded Assets and the Environment at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford on 24 September 2015.

ABSTRACT

This paper develops a simple model of an energy transition. Projections for growth in renewables and electric vehicles suggest that the oil and gas industry will be disrupted during the 2020s, but that, as things stand, carbon dioxide emissions are unlikely to fall fast enough to keep within a 2° emissions budget. To keep warming to 2°, additional ways of reducing emissions from industry or of accelerating emissions reductions from generation, transport and buildings will be needed together with an extensive programme of carbon dioxide removal.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• carbon budget
• carbon capture and storage
• electric vehicles
• Paris agreement

Notes on contributors

Howard Covington is chair of The Alan Turing Institute, vice-chair of ClientEarth and a senior adviser to Preventable Surprises. He was formerly CEO of New Star Asset Management.

Notes

* A talk based on an earlier version of this paper was given at the 1st Global Conference on Stranded Assets and the Environment at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford on 24 September 2015.