The effect of emotion on statistical reasoning: Findings from a base rates task

Abstract

In this paper we explore the effect of emotion on statistical reasoning. We employed a base rates task to examine reliance on statistical information in the presence of congruent or incongruent anecdotal information. The impact of emotional content on statistical reasoning was investigated in controls and victims of sexual abuse. Two types of emotional contents were used, one generally emotional, and one related to sexual abuse. The latter category was included to investigate the effect of semantically identical stimuli that could potentially produce different levels of emotion in the victim and control groups. For control participants, emotional contents were associated with decreased use of statistical information and increased use of anecdotal information compared to neutral contents. Results from the victims group showed this effect to be increased for contents related to sexual abuse, suggesting that the effect is linked to the emotional connotation rather than semantic content. Victims perceived contents relating to their experience as more emotional and this was associated with specific reasoning impairments for these topics.

Keywords:

• Dual-system accounts of reasoning
• Emotion
• Statistical reasoning

Notes

¹Analyses with the removal of±50% responses: Group did not have a significant effect, F(1, 100) = 2.82, p=.11, and the main effects of content and congruency, Fs > 6.58, ps<.01, were qualified by a significant three-way interaction between content, congruency, and group, F(2, 200) = 6.08, p<.01.

²Analyses with the transformation of±50% responses into zero: Group did not have a significant effect, F(1, 153) = 2.02, p=.16, and the main effects of content and congruency, Fs > 10.75, ps<.01, were qualified by a significant three-way interaction between content, congruency, and group, F(2, 306) = 7.71, p<.01.