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Abstract
Five factors that will eventually lead to political–legal changes in the Antarctic Treaty System are analysed. The increase in membership, heterogeneity and asymmetry of the states that are part of it, including the seven claimants, has produced substantial changes in the political equilibrium of this international regime. The pressure to internationalise Antarctic governance puts stress on the relationship between “traditional” and “new” Antarctic countries. It is a scenario where the importance of sovereignty and the influence of the claimant states are greater than is normally assumed in the public discourse. The new uses of, and economic and strategic interests in Antarctica have also had an important effect on the evolution of this international regime. The purpose of this article is to promote prospective studies about all these topics. It is necessary to think about the future of Antarctic governance to ensure that strategic decisions are taken at the appropriate time, so that the objectives of the Antarctic Treaty System can be achieved. The task of thinking about Antarctic futures must be faced with a multidisciplinary vision.
Notes
1 For more on Antarctic history and the development of the Antarctic Treaty System, see Ferrada, “Evolución del Sistema del Tratado Antártico,” and Ferrada, “Iniciativa privada y estatal” and the bibliography there cited.
2 Chown, “Challenges to the future conservation.”
3 Summerhayes, “The next 100 years”; Kennicutt, “Polar research: Six priorities,” 23–25; SCAR, “A roadmap for Antarctic”; SCAR, “A View beyond the Horizon”; Kennicutt, “A roadmap for Antarctic.”
4 Australian Government, 20 Year Australian Antarctic Strategic Plan.
5 Joyner, “Potential challenges”; Figueroa, “La Antártica como escenario de cooperación”; Hemmings, “Antarctic politics,” 514–517.
6 Tin, “Antarctic futures.”
7 Liggett, “Is it all going south?”
8 Abdel-Motaal, Antarctica.
9 Wang, International Law on Antarctic Mineral Resources.
10 Joyner, “Potential challenges,” 101.
11 Chown, “Challenges to the future conservation.”
12 Haward, Jabour and Press, “Antarctic Treaty System.”
13 Chown, “Antarctic Treaty System.”
14 For more on the discussions held before October 2016, see CCAMLR Commission, Report of the thirty-fourth meeting of the Commission, 46–68. The MPA was adopted in 2016 by Conservation measure 91–05; see CCAMLR Commission, Report of the thirty-fifth meeting of the Commission, 39–58.
15 Dodds and Hemmings, “Britain and the British Antarctic Territory,” 1432.
16 Joyner, “Potential challenges.”
17 Hemmings, “Antarctic politics.”
18 Liggett, “Is it all going south?”
19 Hemmings, “Antarctic politics,” 509–510.
20 Idiens, Gateway Antarctica; Vanstappen and Wouters, “The EU and the Antarctic.”
21 Consejo de Defensa Suramericano, Planes de Acción 2012, 2013 and 2014.
22 Hemmings, “Antarctic politics,” 510–513.
23 Tepper and Haward, “The development of Malaysia’s position.”
24 Díaz and Villamizar, “Uso pacífico de la Antártica,” 27–28; Beck, “Antarctica and the United Nations.”
25 Rosencranz, “The Origin and Emergence,” 311; Wolfrum, “Common Heritage of Mankind”; Haase, Lamers and Amelung, “Heading into uncharted territory?”
26 Hughes and Grant, “The spatial distribution,” 42.
27 Salazar, “Five cities.”
28 Hendry and Dickson, British Overseas Territories Law, 299–301; U.K. Government, “British Antarctic Territory.”
29 Orrego Vicuña, Derecho Internacional de la Antártida, 36.
30 Rognhaug, Norway in the Antarctic, 23.
31 Norway. “Regulations relating to the protection of the environment” 26 April 2013 No. 412 relates to the protection of the environment and safety in Antarctica (Antarctic Regulations).
32 See Humane Society International Inc. v Kyodo Senpaku Kaisha Ltd. [2008] FCA 3, NSD 1519 OF 2004. For more about this case, see McGrath, “Australia can lawfully stop whaling”; Dodds, “Governing Antarctica,” 114. For further analysis about this case’s effects in Antarctic political balance, see Davis, “Enforcing Australian law”; Anton, “Australian Jurisdiction”; Anton, “False Sanctuary”; Anton, “Antarctic Whaling”; Triggs, “The Antarctic Treaty System,” 45–46.
33 International Court of Justice “Whaling in the Antarctic.”. For more information about the case, see Nagtzaam, “Righting the Ship”; Payne, “Australia v. Japan”; Rolland, “Whaling in the Antarctic”; Rothwell, “The Whaling Case”; Clapham, “Japan’s whaling”; Mbengue, “Between law and science”; McCahey and Cole, “Human(e) Science”; Scovazzi, “Between law and science”; Villamizar, “Comentarios a la sentencia.”
34 IWC, Resolutions Nº 2005–1 and Nº 2007–1. See Rothwell and Stephens, “The Regulation of Southern Ocean Whaling,” 4–7.
35 Joyner, “Potential challenges,” 99–100.
36 Aristóteles, Política, 51.
37 Hardin, The Tragedy of the Commons; For an argument against Hardin, see Ostrom, El gobierno de los bienes comunes.
38 Han, Sobre el poder, 9.
39 See, for example, Dodds, “Sovereignty Watch.”
40 Hemmings, “Antarctic Politics,” 516.
41 COMNAP, “Antarctic Facilities List 31 March 2017.”
42 Dastidar, “National and institutional productivity.”
43 INACH, “PROCIEN 2014,” 22.
44 Dudeney and Walton, “Leadership in Politics and Science.”
45 Sánchez, “A brief analysis.”
46 Gray and Hughes, “Demonstration of substantial research activity.”
47 Dodds, “Sovereignty watch”; Dodds, “Awkward Antarctic nationalism.”
48 U.K. Government, “Queen Elizabeth Land.”
49 Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores (Chile), “Declaración del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores”; Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores y Culto (Argentina), “Antártida Argentina: Protesta del Gobierno.”
50 Ferrada, “La defensa nacional.”
51 Wilson, Alfresco Flight.
52 Dodds, “Sovereignty Watch,” 236, 239; Bateman, “Australia not pulling its weight”; Bergin, “Defence: advancing our interests.”
53 Armada de Chile, “Intensos operativos contra la pesca ilegal”; Armada de Chile, “Armada cumple record de pesqueros fiscalizados”; Prensa Antártica “Siete buques factoría internacionales.”
54 Royal Navy (U.K.), “HMS Protector.”
55 Dodds and Hemmings, “Britain and the British Antarctic Territory.”
56 Ministry of Defence (U.K.), “Overseas Territories.”
57 De Paula, “Uso del instrumento militar”; Colacrai, “La Política Antártica Argentina.”
58 Klotz, America on the Ice; Klotz, “American Interests in Antarctica.”
59 Sánchez, “Argentina, Chile and the Joint Antarctic Naval Patrol.”
60 Armada de Chile, “Buque “Aquiles” construye en la Antártica.”
61 For work highlighting these tensions, see Joyner, “Potential challenges,” 97–98; and Triggs, “The Antarctic Treaty System,” 47. For work supporting the lawfulness of that application, see Infante, “Antártica y la jurisdicción marítima”; and Gorostegui, “Chile y la Plataforma Continental Antártica.”
62 See Final Report XXXV ATCM (Hobart, 2012), parr. 175–221; Resolution 4 (2013); XXXV ATCM (Hobart, 2012), WP 51 (United States); Final Report XXXV ATCM (Hobart, 2012), parr. 152–155; Resolution 8 (2012); XXXVI ATCM (Brussels, 2013), WP 25 (United States); XXXVI ATCM (Brussels, 2013), WP 52 (United States); XXXVI ATCM (Brussels, 2013), WP 53 (United States); XXXVI ATCM (Brussels, 2013), WP 17 (COMNAP); XXXVI ATCM (Brussels, 2013), WP 34 (New Zealand), among others.
63 Infante, “El Sistema Antártico,” 294–295; Berguño, “El Tratado Antártico.”
64 Triggs, “The Antarctic Treaty System,” 44.
65 Triggs, “The Antarctic Treaty System,” 39.
66 Lauterpacht, The Function of Law in International Community, 153.
67 See XXXIII ATCM, WP 52 (UK, IAATO); XXXIV ATCM, WP 20 (UK, IAATO); XXXIV ATCM, IP 21 rev.1 (Argentina); XXXV ATCM, IP 42 (UK, IAATO); XXXVI ATCM, IP 54 (UK, IAATO); XXXVII ATCM IP 55 (UK, IAATO); XXXVII ATCM, IP 88 (Argentina); XXXVIII ATCM IP 96 (UK, IAATO); XXXVIII ATCM, IP 127 rev.1 (Argentina); XXXIX ATCM, WP 34 (UK, Argentina, Chile, IAATO); XL ATCM, WP 19 (UK, Argentina, Chile, IAATO).
68 Bauer, Tourism in the Antarctic, 122.
69 INACH, “Especial Cambio Climático,” 12–25; Turner, Antarctic climate change and the environment; Clary and Winther, Co-Chairs’ Report from ATME on Implications of Climate Change; Mayewski, “Estado del sistema climático antártico”; Turner, “Antarctic climate change… An update.”
70 Naish, “What does the United Nations Paris Climate.”
71 Pertierra, “High Resolution Spatial Mapping,” 7 (map of the whole continent), and 8 (detailed map of the Antarctic Peninsula).
72 Hemmings, ““Environmental Management” as Diplomatic Method,” 78–79.
73 Hughes and Grant, “The spatial distribution of Antarctica’s protected areas.”
74 Hemmings and Gilbert, “Antarctica’s unclaimed sector.”
75 Earth Overshoot Day (previously named Ecological Debt Day) is measured every year by NGOs and regularly makes headlines.
76 Roberts, “The Day the Earth Ran Out”; Roberts, “On borrowed time”; Earth Overshoot Day (2017).
77 National Research Council, Can Earth’s and Society’s Systems.
78 Parker, El destino no lo es todo.
79 Conservation measure 91–05; CCMLAR Commission, Report of the thirty-fifth meeting of the Commission, 39–58.
80 Wilkinson, “The Use of Domestic Measures,” 291; Kubli, “Régimen jurídico de protección,” 522–524; Ackerman, “Japanese whaling in the Pacific Ocean,” 331–335.
81 IWC, “Revised Management Scheme.”
82 Pinochet de la Barra, La Antártica chilena, 81–88; Richards, Sealing in the Southern Oceans, 7–21 and 257–258; Mancilla, “Algunos antecedentes sobre la Política Antártica Chilena.”
83 Brady, China as a Polar Great Power; Perlez, “China, Pursuing Strategic Interests”; Walton, “Book review… The Emerging Politics of Antarctica”; Chown, “Challenges to the future conservation,” 158–159.
84 Lertora, “La condición jurídica del hielo.”
85 See Prensa Antártica, “Emiratos Árabes planea combatir la sequía”; Info 7, “Iceberg en Emiratos Árabes Unidos cada vez más cerca.”
86 Joyner, “Potential challenges,” 98–99; Infante, “Antártica y la jurisdicción marítima,” 367–368; Puig-Marcó, “Access and benefit sharing.”
87 Villamizar, “Bioprospección Antártica.”
88 SCAR, Strategic Plan 2017–2022, 11.
89 Considering that IAATO represents the most but not all tourist operators, 44,367 persons travelled to Antarctic with IAATO operators during the 2016–2017 season, representing an increase of 15 per cent compared to the previous season. See XL ATCM, IP 162 (IAATO).
90 Haase, Lamers and Amelung, “Heading into uncharted territory”; Wright, “Southern exposure”; Harcha, “Tourism in Antarctica.”
91 Hemmings, “Antarctic politics,” 513.
92 Final Report XXXIV ATCM (Buenos Aires, 2011), Part III. Opening and closing addresses and reports.
93 Final Report XXXIX ATCM (Santiago, 2016), 92–107.