A bivariate probit analysis of factors affecting partial, complete and continued adoption of soil carbon sequestration technology in rural China

ABSTRACT

There remain significant technological as well as socio-economic and behavioural challenges to conservation tillage adoption despite its acknowledged carbon mitigation potential. In this paper, we distinguish between the factors that influence partial, complete and continued adoption of conservation tillage in a rural region of north western China. As complete benefits of conservation tillage to the private farmers as well as society are realised only through continued adoption, it is important to identify and distinguish the factors that promote long-term adoption of conservation tillage from the ones that lead only to short-term adoption. Using a bivariate probit analysis, we find that government subsidy programmes and households’ wealth play a key role in the continued adoption of conservation tillage practices. Poorer farmers and those whose neighbours have abandoned conservation tillage are more likely to give up on conservation tillage, after having adopted initially. Geographical factors and fragmented land holdings encourage only partial adoption, even under government subsidies. We recommend the introduction of smaller and portable farming machines combined with long-term subsidy schemes. When faced with government budget constraints that make prolonged subsidy for all difficult, targeting the farmer groups according to their socio-economic traits is crucial.

KEYWORDS:

• Conservation tillage
• Chinese agriculture
• bivariate probit
• soil carbon sequestration
• continued adoption
• complete adoption
• carbon mitigation

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Huliang Zhu in Shanxi Agricultural Machinery Bureau, Weiguo Sun, Xiaoqing Cai in Huangling Agricultural Machinery Bureau, Professor Hansheng Wang and students in Xi'an University of Posts & Telecommunications, for supporting and helping with conducting the survey in Huangling County.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Abbreviations: global greenhouse gases (GHGs); conservation tillage (CT); traditional tillage (TT); Huangling County (HC).

2. The villages Houtai cun, Xiangliu cun, Heyao cun and Shiyao cun are located near the upper reaches of Juhe River; Maliankou cun, Nian cun, Zuowan cun, mailuoan cun, pingtian cun are liyuan cun are located near the middle reaches of Juhe River; Liujiahe cun, Xiwanghe cun and Wujiaodi cun are located near the lower reaches of Juhe River.

3. The two selected villages in plateau area in HC are Daonan cun and Daobei cun.

4. The exchange rate on 4 December 2013.

5. Theory and examples of estimating of M-equation multivariate probit model using GHK-simulated maximum likelihood method are provided by Cappellari and Jenkins (2003).

6. Y. Ji et al.