Creating new states: the strategic use of referendums in secession movements

ABSTRACT

What is the value of using referendums as part of independence movements? By considering recent prominent secession movements, this article theorizes that referendums provide several strategic advantages to distinct communities seeking territorial independence. First, the referendum is a key event that transfers power away from political elites and towards citizens, who are given responsibility for deciding independence. Second, the referendum forces the central government to act by creating a date when independence will be decided (a self-created window of opportunity). Third, the referendum frames independence in terms of democracy and the right to self-determination, making it difficult for the central government to challenge. Fourth, referendum campaigns can help solidify the identity of a distinct community (or ‘resurrect’ it), thus increasing the number of citizens concerned with secession. While not always successful, secession referendums provide advantages to those groups that control their deployment.

KEYWORDS:

• referendums
• secession
• independence
• movements

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to thank Gerardo L. Munck, Carol Wise, and the members of the Latin American Research Group at the University of Southern California. Thank you also to Christopher Darnton and Ryan D. Griffiths for their valuable comments at the 2020 American Political Science Association conference.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 There is a vast literature on the use of referendum by governments to decide issues at the domestic or local levels. For the most part, the focus here is limited to secession referendums, which is reflected in the literature consulted.

2 As Lupia and Matsusaka (2004) point out, ‘referendums’ rather than ‘referenda’ is preferred as the plural term following the Oxford English Dictionary and existing literature.

3 The role of political elites is crucial in secession. As Bossacoma (2020, p. 263) argues, elites are needed to negotiate the process and terms of secession, including holding the referendum.

4 Region and centre are by no means always cohesive groups; each is composed of a variety of organizations, factions and groups, each of which holds its own position on the secession question. However, since the focus here is on referendums, the general terms of centre and region serve to explain the argument.

5 There is a vast literature on subnational referendums. The focus here is on referendums towards territorial secession. As such, much of the literature regarding referendums generally is omitted in order to focus on secession attempts.

6 On this topic, ethnic groups in conflict by Horowitz (1985) has been greatly influential.

7 States may not always be averse to losing territory. Griffiths (2016, p. 20) provides a discussion of literature on this possibility. He explains how states respond to potential secession depending on administrative lines and categories. Additionally, Le Breton and Weber (2003) discuss compensation schemes that prevent a threat of secession by any of a state’s regions. Compensation and transfer schemes work when the region is willing to accept a compromise to independence, which may not always be the case. Finally, Cole and Pasquier (2015) discuss the conditions for a successful form of regional advocacy in unitary states.

8 Combining both metrics, He (2002) proposes a legitimacy index calculated through the following equation: (Approval rate × Turnout rate)/100. This index provides an indicator of the level of support for independence.

9 For a discussion of different types of thresholds (quorums) for referendums, see Tierney (2012, ch. 9).

10 While out of the scope of this discussion, in another important line of enquiry Bossacoma (2014) discusses who might be the citizens of a hypothetical Catalan state.

11 There is evidence that international recognition influences support for a unilateral declaration of independence among those individuals who would constitute the new state (Muro et al., 2020). International recognition leads individuals who favour secession on economic or political grounds to support unilateral independence, while less nationalistic individuals and individuals who prefer independence due to ethno-political motivations are less influenced by international recognition.

12 Ideally, the region must convince the centre to accept the referendum as a legitimate way to decide independence because international recognition is easily achieved when the centre recognizes independence (Coggins, 2011).

13 For an expanded arguments on these points, see Dalle Mulle and Serrano (2019).

14 For the manifestoLet Catalans Vote, see http://www.letcatalansvote.org/en.

15 For the Kurdish manifesto, see https://thekurdishproject.org.

16 For the Manifesto for the South Brazil secession movement, see https://www.sullivre.org/manifesto-libertario/.

17 Referendums are not only used in democratic settings. Altman (2011) discusses referendums in non-democratic settings.