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ABSTRACT
This study examines intra-group competition over settlements in protracted conflicts, focusing on how they empower certain veto players allowing them to make deals across ethnic boundaries to compete with co-ethnic elites for in-group support. Institutional settlements can provide material benefits alongside conditions for participation in shared institutions to access those benefits. Cooperative players who emerge as alternatives to status quo veto players undermine existing elites’ support by striking bargains across ethnic boundaries, including on institutional participation to provide public goods, rather than maintaining ethnic closure. Cooperative players emerge during periods of economic decline, elite-led group closure, and when solutions to practical problems are linked to peace settlements. This argument is developed using analysis of group-level competition during settlement efforts in Cyprus and Kosovo.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Rogers Brubaker, ‘Ethnicity without Groups’, European Journal of Sociology 43, no. 2 (2002): 163–89; and Sherrill Stroschein, ‘Ethnic Conflict: Looking Inside Groups’, Ethnopolitics 16, no. 1 (2017): 74–81.
2 Stephen John Stedman, ‘Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes’, International Security 22, no. 2 (1997): 5–53.
3 Andrew Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, ‘Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence’, International Organization 56, no. 2 (2002): 263–96; and Andrew G. Reiter, ‘Fighting Over Peace: Spoilers, Peace Agreements, and the Strategic Use of Violence’, in Rethinking Political Violence (Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016).
4 David A. Lake, The Statebuilder’s Dilemma: On the Limits of Foreign Intervention (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2016).
5 Stroschein, ‘Ethnic Conflict’.
6 Christina Isabel Zuber, ‘Ethnic Party Competition beyond the Segmented Market’, Nationalities Papers 40, no. 6 (2012): 927–44.
7 Roger D. Petersen, Western Intervention in the Balkans: The Strategic Use of Emotion in Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011); and Christopher M. Jackson, ‘Ethnic Protection Rackets: Turkish Cypriot Statebuilding before 1974’, Civil Wars 23, no. 4 (2021): 520–44.
8 Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson and Pamela R. Aall, Taming Intractable Conflicts: Mediation in the Hardest Cases (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2004).
9 Kanchan Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed : Patronage and Ethnic Head Counts in India (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
10 Zuber, ‘Ethnic Party Competition’.
11 Adam D. Sheingate, ‘Political Entrepreneurship, Institutional Change, and American Political Development’, Studies in American Political Development 17, no. 2 (2003): 185–203.
12 The concept of ‘punctuated equilibria’ is derived from evolutionary biology and applied to studies of economics and political institutions. Punctuated equilibria is generally understood as the stable continuation of given characteristics until an external event or ‘shock’ produces rapid evolutionary change thereby altering a pathway for progress.
13 Paul Mitchell, Geoffrey Evans and Brendan O’Leary, ‘Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems Is Not Inevitable: Tribune Parties in Northern Ireland’, Political Studies 57, no. 2 (2009): 397–421.
14 Benjamin Broome, ‘Managing Differences in Conflict Resolution: The Role of Relational Empathy’, in Conflict Resolution: Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, ed. Dennis Sandole and Hugo van der Merwe (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1993), 97–111.
15 Charles T. Call, ‘Ending Wars, Building States’, in Building States to Build Peace, ed. Charles T. Call and Vanessa Wyeth (Boulder: Lynne Reinner, 2008), 1–22.
16 Barbara F. Walter, ‘Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 7 (2015): 1242–72; and Aila Matanock, Electing Peace: From Civil Conflict to Political Participation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017).
17 John Ishiyama and Michael Widmeier, ‘Territorial Control, Levels of Violence, and the Electoral Performance of Former Rebel Political Parties after Civil Wars’, Civil Wars 15, no. 4 (2013): 531–50.
18 Ibid; and Christopher M. Jackson, ‘Linking to the State: Hierarchical Statebuilding After Conflict in the Western Balkans’, Ethnopolitics 20, no. 3 (2021): 341–61.
19 Jesse Driscoll, Warlords and Coalition Politics in Post-Soviet States (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015).
20 James D. Fearon, ‘Why Do Some Civil War Last so Much Longer than Others?’ Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004): 275–301.
21 Michael Barnett, Songying Fang and Christoph Zürcher, ‘Compromised Peacebuilding’, International Studies Quarterly 58 (2014): 608–20; and Lake, The Statebuilder’s Dilemma.
22 Roger Mac Ginty and Oliver P. Richmond, ‘The Local Turn in Peace Building: A Critical Agenda for Peace’, Third World Quarterly 34, no. 5 (2013): 763–83.
23 Broome, ‘Managing Differences’; and Caroline A. Hartzell and Matthew Hoddie, ‘Institutionalizing Peace: Power Sharing and Post-Civil War Conflict Management’, American Journal of Political Science 47, no. 2 (2003): 318–32.
24 Stefan Wolff, ‘Post-Conflict State Building: The Debate on Institutional Choice’, Third World Quarterly 32, no. 10 (2011): 1777–1802.
25 Carl T. Dahlman and Trent Williams, ‘Ethnic Enclavisation and State Formation in Kosovo’, Geopolitics 15, no. 2 (2010): 406–30; Zuber, ‘Ethnic Party Competition’; and Jackson, ‘Ethnic Protection Rackets’.
26 David A. Lake, ‘Why Does Ethnicity Increase in Salience as Political Order Decays?’ Ethnopolitics 16, no. 1 (2017): 82–88.
27 James D. Fearon, ‘Why Ethnic Politics and Pork Tend to Go Together’, in SSRC-MacArthur Sponsored Conference on Ethnic Politics and Democratic Stability (University of Chicago, 1999).
28 Jackson, ‘Ethnic Protection Rackets’.
29 Ana Arjona, Rebelocracy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016).
30 Charles King, ‘The Benefits of Ethnic War: Understanding Eurasia’s Unrecognized States’, World Politics 53, no. 4 (2001): 524–52; and Carrie Manning Christoph, Kristie D. Evenson, Rachel Hayman, Sarah Riese and Nora Roehner, Costly Democracy: Peacebuilding and Democratization after War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2013).
31 Paul R. Brass, Ethnicity and Nationalism: Theory and Comparison (New Delhi: Sage, 1991).
32 Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985).
33 Petersen, Western Intervention.
34 James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, ‘Explaining Interethnic Cooperation’, American Political Science Review 90, no. 4 (1996): 715–35.
35 Stedman, ‘Spoiler Problems’.
36 Kydd and Walter, ‘Sabotaging the Peace’; and Reiter, Fighting over Peace.
37 Cunningham, ‘Veto Players’.
38 Lake, The Statebuilder’s Dilemma.
39 Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict.
40 Fearon, ‘Why Ethnic Politics and Pork’; James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner and Jeremy M. Weinstein, ‘Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision?’ American Political Science Review 101, no. 4 (2007): 709–25.
41 Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed.
42 Ibid.
43 See note 5 above.
44 Jackson, ‘Linking to the State’.
45 Mitchell et al., ‘Extremist Outbidding’.
46 Fearon and Laitin, ‘Explaining Interethnic Cooperation’.
47 Stathis N. Kalyvas, ‘Ethnic Defection in Civil War’, Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 8 (2008): 1043–68.
48 See note 28 above.
49 See note 39 above.
50 Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; and Dejan Stjepanovic, ‘Claimed Co-Ethnics and Kin-State Citizenship in Southeastern Europe’, Ethnopolitics 14, no. 2 (2015): 140–58.
51 Nina Caspersen, ‘Belgrade, Pale, Knin: Kin-State Control over Rebellious Puppets?’ Europe-Asia Studies 59, no. 4 (2007): 621–41.
52 Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, ‘Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars’, World Politics 61, no. 3 (2009): 403–37.
53 Rogers Brubaker, ‘National Minorities, Nationalizing States, and External National Homelands in the New Europe’, Daedalus 124, no. 2 (1995): 107–32.
54 See note 35 above.
55 James Mahoney, ‘Process Tracing and Historical Explanation’, Security Studies 24, no. 2 (2015): 200–218; and Stroschein, ‘Ethnic Conflict’.
56 See note 28 above.
57 Chaim Kaufmann, ‘An Assessment of the Partition of Cyprus’, International Studies Perspectives 8 (2007): 206–23.
58 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, June 1977; and Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, December 1977.
59 Rauf Denktaş quoted, The Times (18 November 1983); and Ronald J. Fisher, ‘Cyprus: The Failure of Mediation and the Escalation of an Identity-Based Conflict to an Adversarial Impasse’, Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 3 (2001): 307–26.
60 Suha Bolukbasi, ‘Boutros‐Ghali’s Cyprus Initiative in 1992: Why Did It Fail?’ Middle Eastern Studies 31, no. 3 (1995): 460–82.
61 Interviews, Rauf Denktaş, Radio Bayrak [Turkish](29 November 1994, 27 January 1995, 14 January 1996, 19 October 1997).
62 Under the 1960 constitution each community had a ‘Communal Chamber’ to oversee strictly intra-communal matters, with a President and 15 elected deputies to oversee matters such as education and religion.
63 See note 28 above.
64 Sertac Sonan, ‘In the Grip of Political Clientelism: The Post-1974 Turkish Cypriot Politics and the Politico-Economic Foundations of pro-Taksim Consensus’ (Doctoral Dissertation, University of Duisburg, 2014).
65 Overview of TFSC budget, The Times (25 September 1981, 4 May 1982).
66 Umut Bozkurt, ‘Turkey: From the “Motherland” to the “IMF of Northern Cyprus”?’ Cyprus Review 26, no. 1 (2014): 83–105; and Sonan, ‘In the Grip of Political Clientelism’.
67 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, December 1980.
68 Bolukbasi, ‘Boutros‐Ghali’s Cyprus Initiative’; and Fisher, ‘Cyprus’.
69 Reports on TRNC parliamentary votes, Radio Bayrak [Turkish](6 September 1993, 27 July 1994, 22 August 1994).
70 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, March 1998.
71 The Times (7 January 1988); and interview, Özker Özgür, Radio Bayrak [Turkish](3 May 1994).
72 Bozkurt, ‘Turkey’.
73 Interview, Mehmet Ali Talat, Radio Bayrak [Turkish](28 May 1996, 1 September 1997).
74 Reports of meetings, Radio Bayrak [Turkish](4 October 1994, 13 March 1995, 27 February 1998, 27 April 2000).
75 Interview, Mehmet Ali Talat, Radio Bayrak [Turkish](27 December 1999, 17 December 2002).
76 Reports on rallies, Radio Bayrak [Turkish] (27 November 2002, 26 December 2002).
77 Reuters (18 July 2000); Radio Bayrak [Turkish] (31 July 2000).
78 Amaral, Joana, ‘Civil Society in Peace Referendums: Inclusion and Campaign Mobilization in Northern Ireland and Cyprus’, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 27, no. 3 (2021): 370–88.
79 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, November 1999.
80 Cases reported, Reuters (2 May 1996, 8 July 1996); and Radio Bayrak [Turkish] (25 May 2001).
81 Reuters (8 July 2000).
82 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, May 2003; and Interview, Mehmet Ali Talat, Anadolu Agency [Turkish](28 October 2003).
83 Coalition Agreement, Anadolu Agency [Turkish] (13 January 2004).
84 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, May 2004.
85 Rebecca Bryant and Mete Hatay, Sovereignty Suspended : Building the So-Called State (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2020).
86 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, November 2009; and Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, May 2010.
87 United Nations Security Council, Report by the Secretary-General on the United Nations Operation in Cyprus, October 2018.
88 Overview of Turkish role in TRNC 2020 election, Gazedda Kibris [Turkish](10 June 2021).
89 See note 33 above.
90 OSCE, Assessment of the Situation of Ethnic Minorities in Kosovo, February 2000.
91 United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, March 2000; and Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, October 2001.
92 United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, April 2004; Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, February 2005; and Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, November 2006.
93 Interviews, Serbian Minister Nebojša Čović, Tanjug [Serbian](25 October 2001); AFP (5 November 2001); FoNet [Serbian](25 October 2002).
94 UNSC, March 2000; and April 2004.
95 Interviews, Serb Official Oliver Ivanović, FoNet [Serbian](9 August 2005, 23 August 2006); Konkakt Plus [Serbian](3 May 2006).
96 United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, January 2008.
97 Interview, EU mediator Robert Cooper, AFP (8 March 2011).
98 Interview, Serbian Negotiator Borko Stefanović, Danas [Serbian](19 January 2012).
99 See note 44 above.
100 OSCE, Assessment of the Situation of Ethnic Minorities in Kosovo, October 2000; and Assessment of the Situation of Ethnic Minorities in Kosovo, October 2001.
101 Dahlman and Williams, ‘Ethnic Enclavisation’.
102 AFP (18 June 1999); and Tanjug [Serbian](18 June 1999).
103 Interview, SNV-KiM Official Momčilo Trajković, Beta [Serbian](2 July 1999, 25 July 1999, 12 October 1999, 6 March 2000); and UNSC, March 2000; April 2004.
104 UNSC, March 2004.
105 The SNV-M claimed it could mobilise 5,000–10,000 Serbs in northern Kosovo: interview, SNV-M Official Milan Ivanović, Tanjug [Serbian](23 April 2001, 1 May 2001).
106 OSCE, Assessment of the Situation of Ethnic Minorities in Kosovo, October 2003.
107 Interview, SNV-M official Marko Jakšić, Beta [Serbian](4 May 2001); and AFP (2 April 2000; 15 May 2001).
108 UNSC, November 2006.
109 United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, May 2005; and Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, June 2009.
110 Cases reported, AP (5 February 2005, 4 July 2005); KosovaLive [Albanian](4 July 2005); Dnevnik [Serbian](28 December 2006); and FoNet [Serbian](16 November 2007).
111 United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, June 2008; and Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo November 2011.
112 Interview, SLKiM Official Ranđel Nojkić, Politika [Serbian](6 March 2006, 4 August 2007); Interview, SLKiM Official Oliver Ivanović, Express [Albanian](5 August 2007); and AP (13 September 2007).
113 Interviews, SLS Leader Slobodan Petrović, KosovaLive [Albanian](18 April 2006); Koha Ditore [Albanian](4 September 2006, 12 September 2007, 14 January 2008); and Blic [Serbian](20 November 2007).
114 Campaign coverage, FoNet [Serbian](2 May 2006, 20 September 2007); B92 (13 March 2008); and Beta [Serbian](5 March 2009).
115 Beta [Serbian](12 October 2007, 3 April 2008); and Dnevnik [Serbian](15 October 2008).
116 Campaign coverage, Blic [Serbian](22 March 2009); RTS Radio Belgrade [Serbian](5 May 2009); AFP (16 November 2009); and Interview, Slobodan Petrović, Danas [Serbian](9 December 2010).
117 See note 44 above.
118 Glas Javnosti [Serbian](9 September 2009).
119 United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, January 2011.
120 Results from Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kosovo (KQZ).
121 Interview, SLS Officials from Gračanica/Graçanicë, FoNet [Serbian] (11 May 2010); and Koha Ditore [Albanian] (5 July 2010).
122 Ana Devic, ‘Transnationalization of Civil Society in Kosovo: International and Local Limits of Peace and Multiculturalism’, Ethnopolitics 5, no. 3 (2006): 257–73.
123 Adem Beha, ‘Decentralisation in Kosovo: A Challenge to Deal With?’ Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development 17 (2011): 23–42.
124 Politika [Serbian] (26 August 2006).
125 KosovaLive [Albanian](9 September 2006, 13 February 2008).
126 SLS officials quoted, Koha Ditore [Albanian](28 December 2009).
127 Parallel Mayor Zvonko Mihajlović quoted, AFP (5 February 2010).
128 Beta [Serbian](12 October 2007, 2 April 2008); and United Nations Security Council, Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, May 2011.
129 RTS [Serbian](15 March 2010); Kontakt Plus [Serbian](15 November 2010); and AFP (8 December 2010).
130 Koha Ditore [Albanian](9 December 2012); and Express [Albanian](26 December 2012).
131 See note 44 above.
132 Interview, Serbian Deputy Minister Oliver Ivanović, FoNet [Serbian](18 November 2009).
133 KQZ.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Christopher M. Jackson
Christopher M. Jackson is a Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Loyola Marymount University. His research focuses on peacebuilding and negotiations in identity conflict and has been published in the Journal of European Integration, Ethnopolitics, the Journal of Regional Security, Civil Wars, and Democratization.