Prognostic factors and survival of ALS patients from Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract

Our aim was to assess the incidence, survival and its prognostic factors in ALS patients from the area of the City of Belgrade, Serbia. A retrospective analysis included 325 probable or definite ALS cases from all five Belgrade neurology departments in the period 1992–2009. Each patient was regularly followed up during the disease until death or until 31 December 2009. Results showed that the average annual ALS incidence rate was 1.11 per 100,000 inhabitants. Male predominance was registered, except for patients with ALS onset after the age of 80 years. Mean survival from the first symptoms was 4.4 ± 0.2 years. Cumulative probability of survival was 71% for two years, 24% for five years, and 17% for seven years. Patients with diagnostic delay longer than 1.6 years had a 1.4-times better chance for survival (p <0.01). Spinal-onset patients on riluzole therapy had 1.8-times better survival (p < 0.01). Patients with early-onset ALS and higher ALSFRS-R score at initial evaluation also had somewhat better survival (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the average annual ALS incidence rate was 1.11 per 100,000 inhabitants. Longer survival was observed in patients with early onset, longer diagnostic delay, less functional impairment at the time of diagnosis, and riluzole treatment.

Key Words:

• Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
• incidence
• survival
• prognostic factors

Acknowledgement

The study was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia.

Declaration of interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.