Modelling and simulating head-on conflict-solving behaviour of motorcycles under heterogeneous traffic condition in developing countries

Abstract

When facing conflict at the crossing points of an X-intersection, the motorcyclists typically conduct complex behaviours to avoid a head-on accident. These complex behaviours motivate the study on capturing the unique mechanism of motorcycles. Associated with regular travelling, the desired left-turning path is estimated by the parabola-based trajectory, which has the smallest deviation. Concerning accident avoidance, the conflict-solving model is proposed based on two-player game theory, an anticipation approach, and a discrete choice approach. In attempt to validate the model inside the developed micro-simulator, three indicators, travelling speed, cumulative turning angle, and trajectory, are investigated at two two-phase signalized intersections. Compared with real data, the mean absolute percentage error of the first two indicators are 19.18%, 35.5% for double conflicts situation. The mean deviation of trajectory, 0.32 m, is acceptable compared to the motorcycle’s lateral dimension, 0.8 m. Thus, the proposed model could be considered as good in reproducing head-on conflict-solving behaviour.

KEYWORDS:

• Conflict-solving model
• head-on conflict
• heterogeneous traffic
• signalized intersection
• traffic microsimulation

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).