A method for emergency response alternative decision-making under uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper, an emergency decision-making method, based on case-based reasoning and cloud model, is proposed to solve the risk decision-making problem in emergency response. Case-based reasoning, by allowing the decision-maker to referring to past decisions, introduces a short-cut to formulate feasible emergency alternatives. Cloud model is used to evaluate and optimise the emergency response alternatives. To evaluate emergency response alternatives, the decision criterion must be determined according to the aim and characteristics of emergency rescue in disasters or accidents. Then, the weight cloud and evaluation cloud of the decision criterion are determined by the Delphi method combined with backward cloud generator, and the synthesised cloud of each alternative is calculated through arithmetic rules of cloud. Finally, a ranking of all response alternatives can be determined, and the best alternative is selected. Case study shows that the method makes the conversion between qualitative description and quantitative indication more effective.

KEYWORDS:

• Emergency decision-making
• alternative evaluation
• cloud model
• uncertainty conversion
• optimisation

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Social Science Fund of China [grant number 18BGL232].

Notes on contributors

Dengyou Xia

Dengyou Xia is a professor of School of Rescue and Command,China People's Police University.

Chengyao Li

Chenyao Li is a assistant engineer in Jincheng Fire and Rescue Detachment, Shanxi Province.

Jing Xin

Jing Xin is a professor of School of Overseas Security and Protection, China People's Police University.

Yi Zhu

Yi Zhu is a lecturer in School of Overseas Security and Protection, China People's Police University.