Forecasting Accuracy of Earliest Assessment Versus Transitional Change in Early Education Classroom Problem Behavior Among Children at Risk

ABSTRACT

This study compared the relative contribution of earliest assessment of preschool children’s context-specific problem behaviors with subsequent observations of those behaviors for the prediction of later academic and sociobehavioral performance in first grade. Using a nationally representative sample of low-income children from the Head Start Impact Study (N = 3,827), children’s problem behaviors in 22 classroom situational contexts were assessed annually through 2 years of prekindergarten, kindergarten, and first grade. Results from a two-stage analytical approach support the use of earliest assessment as a suitable strategy for the identification and intervention of children’s classroom problem behaviors, where subsequent observations did not increase predictive accuracy over earliest assessment alone. Implications are discussed for assessment theory and practice.

KEYWORDS:

• assessment
• social–emotional
• hierarchical linear modeling
• preschool
• poverty

DISCLOSURE

The authors have no conflicts of interest to report.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research was conducted with the cooperation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Roland S. Reyes

Roland S. Reyes, MS, is a graduate student in the Quantitative Methods program at the University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education.

Paul A. McDermott

Paul A. McDermott, PhD, is a Professor of Quantitative Methods at the University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education.

Marley W. Watkins

Marley W. Watkins, PhD, is a Nonresident Scholar in the Department of Educational Psychology at Baylor University.

Michael J. Rovine

Michael J. Rovine, PhD, is a Senior Fellow in Quantitative Methods at the University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education.

Jessica L. Chao

Jessica L. Chao, PhD, is a recent graduate of the Quantitative Methods program at the University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education.