The Financing of Armed Groups in Conflict

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Notes

1 Seth G. Jones et al., Rolling Back the Islamic State (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017), https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1912.html.

2 Colin Clarke and Charlie Winter, ‘The Islamic State May Be Failing, But Its Strategic Communications Legacy Is Here to Stay’, War on the Rocks, 17 August 2017, https://warontherocks.com/2017/08/the-islamic-state-may-be-failing-but-its-strategic-communications-legacy-is-here-to-stay/.

3 ‘Islamic State Has Been Stashing Millions of Dollars in Iraq and Abroad’, The Economist, 22 February 2018, https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21737302-their-so-called-caliphate-crumbles-jihadists-are-saving-up-fight.

4 Kevin D. Stringer, ‘Tackling Threat Finance: A Labor for Hercules or Sisyphus’, Parameters, vol. 41, no. 1, Spring 2011, pp. 101–19, http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/Parameters/articles/2011spring/Stringer.pdf.

5 Mark Duffield, ‘Post Modern Conflict: Warlords, Post-Adjustment States, and Private Protection’, Civil Wars, vol. 1, no. 1, Spring 1998, p. 68, http://site.uit.no/warandpeacedynamics/files/2013/03/Postmodern-Conflict.pdf; Phil Williams, From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age: The Decline of the State and US Strategy (Carlisle, PA: USAWC Strategic Studies Institute, 2008), p. 11, https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=867.

6 Sidney Weintraub, ‘Disrupting the Financing of Terrorism’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 25, no. 1, Winter 2002, pp. 53–60, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1162/016366002753358311.

7 Louise I. Shelley and John T. Picarelli, ‘Methods Not Motives: Implications of the Convergence of International Organized Crime and Terrorism’, Police Practice and Research, vol. 3, no. 4, 2002, p. 308.

8 Renad Mansour and Hisham al-Hashimi, ‘ISIS Inc.’, Foreign Policy blog, 16 January 2018, http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/16/isis-inc-islamic-state-iraq-syria/.

9 Stathis N. Kalyvas and Laia Balcells, ‘International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict’, American Political Science Review, vol. 104, no. 3, 2010, pp. 415–29, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ab6f/6a40ee839944089ae13471e7c3decd8f86a2.pdf.

10 Steve Hutchinson and Pat O’Malley, ‘A Crime–Terror Nexus? Thinking on Some of the Links Between Terrorism and Criminality’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 30, no. 12, 2007, pp. 1095–107.

11 Chris Dishman, ‘The Leaderless Nexus: When Crime and Terror Converge’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 28, no. 3, 2005, pp. 237–52, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10576100701670870?needAccess=true.

12 Chris Dishman, ‘Terrorism, Crime and Transformation’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 24, no. 1, 2001, pp. 43–58, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10576100118878?journalCode=uter20.

13 Phil Williams, ‘Terrorist Financing and Organized Crime: Nexus, Appropriation or Transformation?’, in Thomas Biersteker and Susan Eckert (eds), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (London: Routledge, 2008), pp. 126–49.

14 Karen Ballentine and Heiko Nitzschke, ‘Beyond Greed and Grievance: Policy Lessons from Studies in the Political Economy of Armed Conflict’, International Peace Academy Policy Report, October 2003, p. 2, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/6765C3D3477FE91C8525742400689BD7-IPA_ArmedCoflict_Oct03.pdf.

15 Tamara Makarenko, ‘The Crime–Terror Continuum: Tracing the Interplay between Transnational Organized Crime and Terrorism’, Global Crime, vol. 6, no. 1, 2004, pp. 129–45, https://www.iracm.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/makarenko-global-crime-5399.pdf.

16 Svante Cornell, ‘Narcotics and Armed Conflict: Interaction and Implications’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 30, no. 3, 2007, p. 208, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10576100601148449.

17 David Keen, Useful Enemies: When Waging Wars Is More Important than Winning Them (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012).

18 Daniel Byman, ‘Talking with Insurgents: A Guide for the Perplexed’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 2, 2009, p. 126, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01636600902775565.

19 Colin P. Clarke, Terrorism, Inc.: The Financing of Terrorism, Insurgency and Irregular Warfare (Santa Barbara, CA: ABC–CLIO, 2015).

20 Kim Cragin et al., The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2004), p. 25.

21 See the considerable body of literature devoted to the effect of resources on conflict: Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 56, 2004, pp. 563–95, https://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/Courses/Readings/CollierHoeffler.pdf; Richard Snyder, ‘Does Lootable Wealth Breed Disorder? A Political Economy of Extraction Framework’, Comparative Political Studies, vol. 39, no. 8, October 2006, pp. 943–68; Michael L. Ross, ‘How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases’, International Organization, vol. 58, no. 1, Winter 2004, pp. 35–67, http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/PS439G/readings/ross_2004. pdf; Michael L. Ross, ‘What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?’, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 41, no. 3, 2004, pp. 337–56.

22 Colin P. Clarke, ‘Drugs & Thugs: Funding Terrorism Through Narcotics Trafficking’, Journal of Strategic Security, vol. 9, no. 3, Fall 2016, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1536&context=jss.

23 Stefan Heißner et al., ‘Caliphate in Decline: An Estimate of Islamic State’s Financial Fortunes’, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), 2017, http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ICSR-Report-Caliphate-in-Decline-An-Estimate-of-Islamic-States-Financial-Fortunes.pdf.

24 Phil Williams and Colin P. Clarke, ‘Iraqi and Syrian Networks’, in Kim Thachuk and Rollie Lal (eds), Terrorist Criminal Enterprises (Santa Barbara, CA: ABC–CLIO, forthcoming 2018).

25 Colin P. Clarke et al., Financial Futures of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017), https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF300/CF361/RAND_CF361.pdf.

26 Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, ‘The Strategic Challenge of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab’, Middle East Quarterly, vol. 16, no. 4, Fall 2009, pp. 25–36. For a more robust discussion of AIAI, see Kenneth J. Menkhaus, ‘Somalia and Somaliland: Terrorism, Political Islam, and State Collapse’, in Robert I. Rotberg (ed.), Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa (Cambridge: World Peace Foundation, 2005), pp. 35–6.

27 Stig Jarle Hansen, Al-Shabaab in Somalia: The History of a Militant Islamist Group, 2005–2012 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 28–32.

28 Ken Menkhaus, ‘Non-State Actors and the Role of Violence in Stateless Somalia’, in Klejda Mulaj (ed.), Violent Non-State Actors in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), p. 373.

29 Tom Keatinge, ‘Sugar Not Ivory Is the Real “White Gold” of Al-Shabaab’, Royal United Services Institute Commentary, 27 November 2015, https://rusi.org/commentary/sugar-not-ivory-real-%E2%80%98white-gold%E2%80%99-al-shabaab.

30 Tom Keatinge, ‘Gimme Some Sugar’, Foreign Affairs blog, 3 December 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-03/gimme-some-sugar.

31 ‘A Charred Harvest: Charcoal and Terrorism in Somalia’, The Economist, 11 October 2014, https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21623793-unlikely-link-between-gulf-lounges-and-somalias-jihadists-charred-harvest.

32 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2017, see Executive Summary, p. 23, http://www.unodc.org/wdr2017/.

33 Carlotta Gall, ‘Saudis Bankroll Taliban, Even as King Officially Supports Afghan Government’, New York Times, 6 December 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/world/asia/saudi-arabia-afghanistan.html.

34 Council on Foreign Relations, ‘The Taliban: A CFR InfoGuide Presentation’, 17 August 2017, see ‘Profiteers and Ideologues’ section, https://www.cfr.org/interactives/taliban?cid=marketing_use-taliban_infoguide-012115#!/taliban?cid=marketing_use-taliban_infoguide-012115.

35 Barnett R. Rubin, ‘The Political Economy of War and Peace in Afghanistan’, World Development, vol. 28, no. 10, 2000, pp. 1,789–803, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c36f/7be485354bca2bc1991280c4cb5204a3914f.pdf.

36 Bennett Seftel, ‘“Persistent, Expanding and Worrisome”: ISIS Rebounds in Afghanistan’, Cipher Brief blog, 5 January 2018, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/persistent-expanding-worrisome-isis-rebounds-afghanistan; see also Amanda Erickson, ‘How the Islamic State Got a Foothold in Afghanistan’, Washington Post, 21 March 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/21/how-the-islamic-state-got-a-foothold-in-afghanistan/?utm_term=.043e2337a6ae.

37 Thomas M. Sanderson, ‘Transnational Terror and Organized Crime: Blurring the Lines’, SAIS Review, vol. 24, no. 1, Winter– Spring 2004, p. 52.

38 McKenzie O’Brien, ‘Fluctuations Between Crime and Terror: The Case of Abu Sayyaf’s Kidnapping Activities’, Terrorism & Political Violence, vol. 24, no. 2, 2012, p. 321, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09546553.2011.648679?needAccess=true.

39 Wade A. Germann et al., ‘Terrorist Financing in the Philippines’, in Michael Freeman (ed.), Financing Terrorism: Case Studies (London: Ashgate, 2012), p. 149.

40 Aurel Croissant and Daniel Barlow, ‘Terrorist Financing and Government Responses in Southeast Asia’, in Harold A. Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo (eds), Terrorism Financing and State Responses: A Comparative Perspective (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2008).

41 Patrick B. Johnston and Colin P. Clarke, ‘Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate?’, Foreign Policy blog, 27 November 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/27/is-the-philippines-the-next-caliphate/.

42 Nazih Richani, ‘Fragmentation of Sovereignty and Violent Non-State Actors in Colombia’, in Klejda Mulaj (ed.), Violent Non-State Actors in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), p. 37; see also Jennifer Holmes et al., ‘A Subnational Study of Insurgency: FARC Violence in the 1990s’, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, vol. 30, no. 3, 2007, pp. 249–65, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10576100601148456?needAccess=true.

43 Francisco Gutiérrez Sanin, ‘Criminal Rebels? A Discussion of War and Criminality from the Colombian Experience’, London School of Economics Working Paper no. 27, April 2003, p. 9, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08cfd40f0b652dd0016bc/WP27FG.pdf.

44 Nicholas Casey, ‘Colombia Rebel Ends Presi-dential Campaign, in Blow to Peace Process’, New York Times, 8 March 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/world/americas/colombia-election-timochenko-farc.html.

45 Peter Neumann, ‘Don’t Follow the Money’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 96, no. 4, July/August 2017, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-06-13/dont-follow-money.

46 Brian A. Gordon and J. Edward Conway, ‘Cost Accounting: Auditing the Taliban in Helmand Province, Afghanistan’, in David M. Blum and J. Edward Conway (eds), Counterterrorism and Threat Finance Analysis During Wartime (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2015), p. 82.

47 Aimen Dean et al., ‘Draining the Ocean to Catch One Type of Fish: Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Counter-Terrorism Financing Regime’, Perspectives on Terrorism, vol. 7, no. 4, 2013, http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/282/570.

48 Jonathan M. Winer and Trifin J. Roule, ‘Fighting Terrorist Finance’, Survival, vol. 44, no. 3, 2002, p. 91.

49 Jeffery M. Johnson and Carl Jensen, ‘The Financing of Terrorism’, Journal of the Institute of Justice & International Studies, no. 10, 2010, p. 111.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Colin P. Clarke

Colin P. Clarke is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, a lecturer at Carnegie Mellon University’s Institute for Politics & Strategy, an associate fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (The Hague) and a non-resident Senior Fellow in the Program on National Security at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). Twitter:@ColinPClarke.