Probabilistic framework for performance assessment of electrical power networks to tornadoes

Abstract

The Electrical Power Network (EPN) constitutes a vital component of the nation’s critical infrastructure. Additionally, the resilience of the community to different natural and man-made hazards depends upon the reliability of the EPN. In this study, a probabilistic methodology is proposed for the performance assessment of EPN subject to tornadoes. The proposed methodology can be disaggregated into distinct analysis phases: hazard analysis, EPN characterization, hazard-network characterization, network analysis, and loss analysis. A hypothetical community with EPN is used to illustrate the methodology. Multi-layer Monte Carlo Simulation together with fragility functions of the components is used to calculate the probability of exceedance of the repair cost and time, to restore power to selected nodes. The methodology presented herein thus provides the ability to statistically characterize and model restoration for a given topology at a detailed enough level to be able to model dependency and potential interdependencies using mechanistic approaches.

Keywords:

• Electrical power networks
• tornado hazard
• Monte Carlo simulation
• hazard-network interaction
• network analysis

Acknowledgments

The content expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions or views of NIST or the U.S Department of Commerce

Notes on contributors:

Vipin U. Unnikrishnan, PhD, is a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Colorado State University, Fort Collins. His research interests are in the areas of the performance-based hurricane risk assessment of engineering, risk assessment of tall buildings subject to extreme winds, resilience of electrical power networks in the event of extreme winds, multi-hazard interaction effects on the loss analysis of buildings, etc. He has published in scholarly journals such as Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, Structural Safety, and Journal of Structural Engineering.

John W. van de Lindt, PhD, is the co-director at the Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, and George T. Abell Distinguished Professor in Infrastructure, at Colorado State University, Fort Collins. His research program focuses on coupling nonlinear dynamics and structural reliability during extreme loading events such as earthquake and wind. He has successfully led federal, state, and industry sponsored projects, published in scholarly journals such as the Journal of Structural Engineering, Engineering Structures, Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, and the International Journal of Modeling and Simulation, and presented at national and international conferences. He is also active on ASCE/SEI Committees and currently chairs the Committee on the Reliability-Based Design of Wood Structures.