Impacts of climate change and variability on the growth potential of global mangrove distribution

ABSTRACT

.Mangrove ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change impacts, which depend on species sensitivity and location. We studied the effects of climate change on three dominant mangrove species globally: red, black, and white mangroves. Using simulation, GIS, and statistical modeling, we evaluated spatially explicit changes in growth suitability resulting from climatic change. Our analysis shows that climate change has significant impacts on mangrove wetlands, with red and black mangroves being the most affected. Low precipitation can impact all species, with red, black, and white mangroves showing a 0.008%, 0.004%, and 0.008% decrease in growth suitability, respectively, for each one mm reduction in precipitation. Variability in climatic variables, such as a unit increase in CV, also significantly impacts mangroves. These results highlight the need to protect mangrove ecosystems for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems.

KEYWORDS:

• Mangroves
• climate change
• growth potential
• and spatial assessment

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

All data used are from publicly available sources mentioned in the manuscript.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Timothy O. Randhir

Dr. Timothy O. Randhir is a Full Professor of Watershed Management, Water Resources, Water Quality, Ecohydrology, Complex Systems, Ecological Economics, and Sustainability. He is at the Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, USA, and is a Director of the Water Resources Research Center. Dr. Randhir received his Ph.D. from Purdue University in 1995 and did post-doctoral work at Purdue University before joining the University of Massachusetts as a faculty. He has a bachelor’s degree in Agricultural Sciences from Annamalai University and a master's in Agricultural Economics from Tamil Nadu Agricultural University.

Keith Toffling

Mr. Keith Toffling has an MS in water, wetlands, and watershed program at the Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, USA. He is owner of Keith Toffling photography in New England.

Curtice R. Griffin

Curtice R. Griffin is a Full Professor in biodiversity conservation, wetland wildlife ecology and management, and integrated natural resources management issues. He focuses primarily on conserving biological diversity and providing a strong science base for management decisions. His overall research program is very applied and is largely driven by the resource conservation needs of local, state, and federal agencies, NGOs, and international organizations. His research and conservation efforts have spanned five continents, from work with elephants in Africa and Southeast Asia to sea turtles and whale sharks in the Caribbean.