A novel method for quantifying risks to climate change events using conditional value at risk: a multi-unit residential building case study in London, Ontario

ABSTRACT

Climate change may lead to more frequent and severe weather events, resulting in significant financial and human health impacts. This paper develops a risk metric using building performance simulation by associating thermal and incidental risks in buildings during power outages while considering multiple cold and hot events. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is calculated using variations in outage events. According to the results, employing an integrated building design and a microgrid with photovoltaic panels that can be disconnected from the grid halves vulnerability related to ice storms and completely mitigates it for historical heatwave events. The variability study has revealed that a code-minimum design has eight times the CVaR of the as-built design. This novel methodology has the potential to inform future environmental, social, and corporate governance strategies and assist infrastructure operators in managing their risk exposure to future climate change events, considering various types of risks and multiple hazards.

KEYWORDS:

• Risk
• thermal resilience
• incidental damages
• adaptation
• zero-net-energy

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Milad Rostami

Milad Rostami is currently a Ph.D. student in Building Engineering at Carleton University. He earned his Master of Science degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Tehran. His research interests encompass climate change adaptation, risk analysis, and building performance simulation.

Santinah Green-Mignacca

Santinah Green-Mignacca is pursuing a Master's degree in Building Engineering at Carleton University. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Architectural Conservation and Sustainability Engineering, also from Carleton University. Her research interests include sustainable infrastructure, resilience and adaptation strategies, as well as biophilic design.

Scott Bucking

Scott Bucking is an Associate Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Carleton University. He completed his Ph.D. in Building Engineering at Concordia University. His research focuses on areas such as net-zero energy buildings, building performance simulation, and climate change resilience.