Down but Not Out? Revisiting the Terror Threat from Foreign Fighters

ABSTRACT

With the terrorist threat of jihadist returnees from the conflict in Iraq and Syria being frequently cited by Western political leaders, a question can be asked about how far this threat is manifesting itself when taking an empirical analysis of recent attacks in the West. In this paper, a detailed review is undertaken of 30 apparently jihadist-inspired attacks in Western countries in the 18-month period between the beginning of 2015 and the middle of 2017. The findings broadly support analysis of earlier conflicts, in that returnees represent a small proportion of overall attackers, but tend to be involved in more organized and lethal operations than other non-travelers. At the same time, low-sophistication attacks by non-travelers can be just as lethal if executed properly. It is also the case that conflicts in the Middle East may represent a long tail of risk for Western countries which reaches far into the future.

RESUMEN:

Dado que los líderes políticos occidentales citan con frecuencia la amenaza terrorista de los retornados yihadistas del conflicto en Irak y Siria, cabe preguntarse hasta qué punto esta amenaza se manifiesta al tomar un análisis empírico de los recientes ataques en Occidente. En este artículo, se realiza una revisión detallada de 30 ataques de aparentemente inspiración yihadista en países occidentales en el período de 18 meses entre principios de 2015 y mediados de 2017. Los resultados apoyan ampliamente el análisis de conflictos anteriores, en el sentido de que los retornados representan una pequeña proporción de los atacantes en general, pero tienden a involucrarse en operaciones más organizadas y letales que otros no-viajeros. Al mismo tiempo, los ataques de baja sofisticación por parte de los no-viajeros pueden ser igual de letales si se ejecutan correctamente. Asimismo los conflictos en el Medio Oriente pueden representar una larga cola de riesgo para los países occidentales extendiéndose en el futuro.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• Iraq
• Syria
• ISIS

Palabras clave:

• Terrorismo
• Irak
• Siria
• ISIS

Notes

1. See for example a recent statement agreed at the G7 summit in Italy, in which the threat of returning foreign fighters was identified as becoming potentially more grave as jihadist groups lose ground in the conflict in Iraq and Syria, and fighters disperse. Reuters. Retrieved July 17, 2017 from: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-g7-summit-britain-idUKKBN18L2SG.

2. See ICSR, https://icsr.info/our-work/foreign-fighters-and-the-returnee-threat/Retrieved January 21, 2020.

3. In the aforementioned analysis of UK jihadists by the BBC, the proportion of female travelers was assessed to be just over 11% in 2017. BBC (2017).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Julian Richards

Julian Richards is the Director of the Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies (BUCSIS) at the University of Buckingham in the UK. He was a co-founder of the centre in 2008, following a career in security and intelligence with the UK government.