Uncertainties in the Assessment of COVID-19 Risk: A Study of People’s Exposure to High-Risk Environments Using Individual-Level Activity Data

Abstract

Based on different conceptualizations and measures of individual-level environmental exposure, this study examines how the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP) and the neighborhood effect averaging problem (NEAP) might affect the assessment of COVID-19 risk. Using the COVID-19 data on an open-access government Web site and the individual-level activity data of sixty confirmed COVID-19 cases (infected persons) in Hong Kong, we first represent COVID-19 risk environments using case-based and venues-based high-risk locations. The COVID-19 risk of each of the sixty selected cases is then evaluated by three approaches based on their exposures to the case-based or venues-based risk environments: the mobility-based approach, the residence-based approach, and the activity space–based approach. The results indicate that the UGCoP and the NEAP exist in the assessment of COVID-19 risk, which has significant implications: Ecological COVID-19 studies need to address the uncertainties due to the UGCoP and the NEAP by considering people’s daily mobility. Otherwise, ignoring peoples’ daily mobility and its interactions with complex and dynamic COVID-19 risk environments could lead to misleading results and misinform government nonpharmaceutical intervention measures.

本文基于对个人环境暴露的不同理解和度量, 探讨了不确定地理环境问题（UGCoP）和邻域效应平均问题（NEAP）对COVID-19风险评估的潜在影响。利用政府网站公开的COVID-19数据, 以及60个香港确诊病例（感染者）的个人活动数据, 利用病例高危位置和场所高危位置来表示COVID-19风险环境。然后, 根据每个确诊病例在病例风险环境或场所风险环境中的暴露情况, 采用三种方法评估了每个病例的COVID-19风险：基于流动性、基于居住地和基于活动空间。结果表明, COVID-19风险评估存在UGCoP和NEAP问题。这一发现具有重要意义：生态COVID-19研究, 需要考虑人们的日常流动性, 从而解决UGCoP和NEAP带来的不确定性。否则, 忽视日常流动性及其与复杂多变的COVID-19风险环境的相互作用, 可能会得出误导性结果, 也可能会为政府非药物干预措施提供错误信息。

Con base en diferentes conceptualizaciones y medidas de exposición ambiental a nivel de individuo, este estudio examina el modo como el problema de contexto geográfico incierto (UGCoP) y el problema del promedio del efecto de vecindario (NEAP) podrían afectar la evaluación del riesgo de COVID-19. Usando los datos de COVID-19 de un sitio Web gubernamental de acceso abierto y datos de actividad a nivel individual de sesenta casos de COVID-19 confirmados (personas contagiadas) en Hong Kong, representamos, en primer término, los entornos de riesgo de contagio con COVID-19 usando lugares de alto riesgo basados en casos y sitios de ocurrencia. El riesgo de COVID-19 de cada uno de los sesenta casos seleccionados se evalúa mediante tres enfoques basados en sus exposiciones a los entornos de riesgo basados en casos y lugares: el enfoque basado en movilidad, el enfoque basado en residencia y el enfoque basado en el espacio de actividad. Los resultados indican que el UGCoP y el NEAP existen en la evaluación del riesgo de COVID-19, lo cual tiene implicaciones significativas: los estudios ecológicos de COVID-19 deben abocar las incertidumbres debidas al UGCoP y al NEAP considerando la movilidad cotidiana de la gente. De otro modo, al ignorar la movilidad cotidiana de la gente y sus interacciones con entornos de riesgo de COVID-19, complejos y dinámicos, podría llevar a resultados engañosos y a desinformar sobre las medidas de intervención gubernamentales de carácter distinto al farmacéutico.

Key Words:

• COVID-19
• environmental exposure
• neighborhood effect averaging problem
• individual-level health risk analysis
• uncertain geographic context problem

关键词:

• COVID-19
• 环境暴露
• 邻里效应平均问题
• 个人健康风险分析
• 不确定地理环境问题。

Palabras clave:

• análisis de riesgo a nivel individual
• COVID-19
• exposición ambiental
• problema del contexto geográfico incierto
• problema de promediar el efecto de vecindario

Acknowledgment

We thank the Hong Kong Department of Health for its kind support in providing public access to the individual-level data used in this research. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments, which helped improve the article considerably.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by grants from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (General Research Fund Grant No. 14605920; Collaborative Research Fund Grant No. C4023-20GF) and a grant from the Research Committee on Research Sustainability of Major Research Grants Council Funding Schemes of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Notes on contributors

Jianwei Huang

JIANWEI HUANG is a PhD Student in the Institute of Space and Earth Information Science at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include human mobility, environmental health, and GIScience.

Mei-Po Kwan

MEI-PO KWAN is Choh-Ming Li Professor of Geography and Resource Management and Director of the Institute of Space and Earth Information Science at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include environmental health, human mobility, sustainable cities, transport and health issues in cities, and GIScience.