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Articles

COVID-19 and Urban Futures: Impacts on Business Closures in Miami-Dade County

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Pages 834-856 | Received 04 Mar 2022, Accepted 22 Sep 2022, Published online: 28 Nov 2022
 

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic altered the local economic geographies of many U.S. cities, and it remains unclear how long these changes will persist. This study analyzed the sociospatial dynamics of business closures in Miami-Dade County, Florida, from August 2020 to August 2021 with an explicit focus on reconciling the pandemic’s effects in the context of location theory. We found that traditional urban centers and transit-concentrated areas experienced disproportionately higher rates of business closures during the study period, suggesting a potential wave of commercial suburbanization in Miami. Middle-class and working-class Hispanic neighborhoods suffered the most business closures. The results of correlation analysis and spatial regression models suggested a positive association between the incidence of COVID-19 cases and business closures at both zip code and individual business levels. These results also beckon a revaluation of the role of certain urban externalities in traditional location theory. The importance of automobile accessibility and agglomeration effects are poised to persist beyond the pandemic, but the benefits of proximity to the public transport system might decline. The trends observed in Miami suggest that the pandemic could generate more automobile-reliant employment subcenters in U.S. cities and amplify problems of intraurban inequality and urban sprawl.

COVID-19疫情改变了美国许多城市的地方经济地理。目前, 尚不清楚这些变化会持续多久。本研究分析了2020年8月至2021年8月期间佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县商业倒闭的社会空间变化, 根据区位理论探讨了对疫情影响的缓解。我们发现, 在此期间, 传统的城市中心和交通密集地区经历了不成比例的更高的商业倒闭率, 这表明迈阿密可能会出现商业郊区化浪潮。西班牙裔中产阶级和工人阶级社区出现了最多的商业倒闭。相关性分析和空间回归模型结果表明, 在邮政编码尺度和个体尺度, COVID-19发病率与商业倒闭都存在着正相关性。这些结果也呼吁, 需要重新评估某些城市外部特性在传统区位理论中的作用。汽车可及性和聚集效应的重要性将会一直持续到疫情之后, 但公共交通系统的临近优势可能会下降。迈阿密的趋势表明, COVID-19可能会在美国城市产生更多依赖于汽车的就业分中心, 加剧城市内部不平等、城市扩张等问题。

La pandemia del COVID-19 alteró las geografías económicas locales de muchas ciudades de los Estados Unidos, y aún no hay claridad por cuánto tiempo más persistirán estos cambios. Este estudio analizó la dinámica socioespacial del cierre de negocios en el Condado de Miami-Dade, Florida, de agosto del 2020 hasta agosto del 2021, centrándose explícitamente en reconciliar los efectos de la pandemia dentro del contexto de la teoría locacional. Descubrimos que los centros urbanos tradicionales y las áreas de tránsito concentrado experimentaron tasas desproporcionadamente más altas de cierres de negocios durante el período del estudio, lo cual sugiere una ola potencial de suburbanización comercial en Miami. Los vecindarios hispánicos de clase media y de la clase trabajadora sufrieron al máximo de cierres de negocios. Los resultados del análisis de los modelos de correlación y regresión espacial sugirieron una asociación positiva entre la incidencia de los casos de COVID-19 y los cierres de negocios, tanto al nivel de los códigos zip como de los negocios individuales. Estos resultados también invitan a la revaluación del papel de ciertas externalidades urbanas en la teoría locacional tradicional. La importancia de la accesibilidad al automóvil y los efectos de la aglomeración muestran disposición a persistir más allá de la pandemia, opero los beneficios de la proximidad del sistema de transporte público podría declinar. La tendencia observada en Miami sugiere que la pandemia podría generar más subcentros de empleo dependientes del automóvil en las ciudades americanas y ampliar los problemas de desigualdad intraurbana y la dispersión urbana.

Acknowledgment

We appreciate the valuable comments from the anonymous reviewers.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Han Li

HAN LI is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146. E-mail: [email protected]. His research uses the technical advancements in GIS spatial modeling, remote sensing, and spatial statistics to examine the spatial organization of human economic activity in urban China, Southeast Asia, and the United States.

Justin Stoler

JUSTIN STOLER is an Associate Professor of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146. E-mail: [email protected]. He is a health geographer specializing in global health disparities, particularly those related to the interaction of communicable diseases, geodemographics, and the physical and built environments.

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