Influence of Loss Aversion on NCAA Men's Basketball Bracket Predictions

ABSTRACT

The NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship, known to fans as March Madness, is one of the most popular annual sporting events in the United States. Despite its economic impact on the sport industry, relatively few studies have examined phenomena associated with March Madness bracketology. The few existing studies have focused on making accurate tournament predictions rather than examining bracketology in ways that might assist sport marketers. To fill this void, the current study applied loss aversion theory to the decision-making process of NCAA tournament bracket participants. The purpose of the study was to develop a framework for understanding how emotional loss aversion might influence the decision of highly and lowly identified fans to choose against one's favorite team when it is likely to lose the game.

损失规避心理对美国大学男子篮球联赛对阵表预测行为的影响

美国大学第一区男子篮球联赛, 是美国最受欢迎的年度体育赛事之一, 即球迷口中的‘疯狂三月赛事’。该赛事衍生出对阵表预测学, 并由此产生了一些现象。尽管‘疯狂三月赛事’在体育界有着不可小觑的经济影响力, 人们对与对阵表预测相关的现象却鲜有研究。现存的相关文献致力于提高赛前竞猜的准确性, 虽然对阵表预测学在某种程度上可能助力球赛市场营销者的运营, 但对后者的研究却被忽略。为弥补这方面的空白, 在本篇研究中, 我们应用了损失规避心理, 针对参加篮球联赛对阵表预测的竞猜者, 研究他们在预测过程中的心理。本篇研究的目的在于构建一个认知框架, 帮助人们更好的理解, 当竞猜者支持的球队胜算不大时, 损失规避心理将如何左右忠实粉丝和非忠实粉丝的情绪, 使他们做出抉择。

KEYWORDS:

• NCAA Men's Basketball Championship
• team identification
• loss aversion
• sport fan emotion
• sport marketing

关键词:

• 美国大学男子篮球联赛
• 球队认同
• 损失规避心理
• 球迷情绪
• 球赛市场

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Equation: Chin's (2004) path coefficient difference test equations.

where : pooled estimator for the variance

: t-statistic with () degree of freedom

: sample size of the dataset for each identification group i

: standard error of path in the structural model for each identification group i

: path coefficient in the structural model each identification group i

i: 1 = Highly identified group, 2 = Lowly identified group

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Brian H. Yim

Brian H. Yim (PhD, University of Georgia, GA, U.S.) is an assistant professor of sport administration in the School of Foundations, Leadership and Administration at Kent State University, Kent Ohio. His overarching research interest lies in customer relationship marketing with a particular focus on sport fan emotions. His work have appeared in such journals as the Sport Marketing Quarterly, International Journal of Sports Marketing and Sponsorship, Social Behavior and Personality: An International Journal, Asian Pacific Journal of Tourism, among others.

Kevin K. Byon

Kevin K. Byon (PhD, University of Florida, FL, U.S.) is an associate professor in the Sport Management Program at Indiana University. His research interests include sport consumer behavior, sport tourism, service and relationship marketing in sport. He has published over 60 refereed articles that have appeared in such journals as Sport Management Review, European Sport Management Quarterly, Journal of Sport Management, Sport Marketing Quarterly, International Journal of Sports Marketing and Sponsorship, among others.