![Sample our Law journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5942/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Law.jpg"})
Abstract
Hawai‘i Friends of Restorative Justice has developed and implemented a reentry planning process to support incarcerated individuals as they prepare to reenter society. With 16 years of successful practice, research has shown that the program has many benefits, including reducing recidivism by 26 percent among recipients. In this paper, we use systems analysis to explore the long-term effects of a reduction in recidivism on the prison population and evaluate the economic and social benefits of such a program. The paper describes a simulation modeling method that quantifies the predicted effect of recidivism on the prison population, shows the net benefit of the reentry program, and demonstrates the usefulness of modern simulation tools in policy analysis of the criminal justice system. We calibrate the model with data on Hawai‘i state prisons. The model indicates that a 26 percent reduction in recidivism leads to a 17 percent reduction in the prison population over 15 years by reducing the number of recidivists in prison by 40 percent. Considering the marginal and average cost of imprisonment, the estimated benefits substantially outweigh the cost of the program with even the most conservative accounting of marginal costs.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to acknowledge and thank George King and the Hawaii State Department of Public Safety for providing data and continued support for this project, as well as the reviewers who provided helpful comments and suggestions.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1 Vensim (https://www.vensim.com) is one of several simulation software packages available based on system dynamics. Vensim offers a free version, with limitations, for scholarly and educational use, which is fully adequate for this study.