The United States, Russia, and Nuclear Peace

The US–Russia relations have reached a low point in recent years due to the latter’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 (Delanoe 2014) and the ongoing destabilization of eastern Ukraine (Harris 2020; Bojcun 2015). The other sources of friction in their international relations include Russia’s questionable role in manipulating election outcomes in the United States (Keating and Schmitt 2021), cyberattacks carried out by cybercriminals based in Russia (Schneider 2020), and its military support for the Assad regime in Syria (Mason and Suchkov 2021) have further exacerbated the fragile relationship’s downward spiral. Nonetheless, at the beginning of this year, the two countries successfully extended the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for another five years (Reif and Bugos 2021). With a new guard in the White House now, and because of the changing geopolitical and geoeconomic realities, the US–Russia relations are poised to veer between conflict and cooperation depending on how the issues at stake evolve in the future (Sokolsky and Rumer 2020).

In view of the deteriorating relations between the US and Russia, Stephen J. Cimbala’s The United States, Russia, and Nuclear Peace is a tiemely and welcome contribution to the debate on their nuclear deterrence policies. He is a prominent Professor of political science at Penn State, Brandywine, and the author of several books on national security studies, Cold War and nuclear arms control. His major works have been Nuclear Weapons in the Information Age, The New Nuclear Disorder: Challenges to Deterrence and Strategy, Arms for Uncertainty, and War Games: US-Russian Relations and Nuclear Arms Control. The arguments presented in The Nuclear Peace build from these works.

The Nuclear Peace is neatly structured, and in about a dozen chapters, explores broad themes like nuclear-strategic stability, deterrence, and non-proliferation. Parallelly, each chapter offers solutions to stop nuclear arms race and the emerging technological competitiveness in antidefense missiles and cyberwarfare. His incisive analyses on the changing dynamics of these protracted issues are informed by his vast knowledge and expertise in the field. The central argument in The Nuclear Peace is that the United States and Russia share significant responsibility for maintaining global nuclear deterrence and stability, preventing accidental, deliberate, or inadvertent use of nuclear weapons, and cooperating on nuclear arms proliferation efforts (p. xv). Cimbala, thus, painstakingly and methodically delves into the colossal archival data and recently declassified files to support his thesis.

Cimbala opens the book with Able Archer 83, the most dangerous moment in Cold War history that the world witnessed after the Cuban Missile Crisis. He cites historians like Tom Blanton and Tim Nicholas to support his argument that it was one of the moments when the United States and Russia came nearest to nuclear confrontation since 1962. The only weak point in his narrative of Able Archer is that he has not cited Simon Miles, one of a few historians who strongly contends that it did not almost lead to war (Miles 2020). Nevertheless, the key takeaway is that the behaviour and public rhetoric of the leaders can escalate or deescalate a crisis to a considerable degree. Thus, who controls the White House and the Kremlin is critical.

The chapter on the arms race in Asia is one of the interesting parts of the book. Nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia and the Middle East can be a pandora’s box, spreading weapons to other parts of the world. These likely axes of conflict could be disruptive to the existing nuclear order. Therefore, preventing a nuclear arms race from proliferating in these counties continues to be a top priority for both Russian and American leaders. The book does not offer anything new theoretically on this aspect. Deterrence and non-proliferation, most commonly used to understand the above case studies, cannot be used to explain the recent upsurge of nuclear proliferation across the world (The Economist 2021). Understanding the changing nuclear dynamics requires a broader range of new theoretical concepts beyond traditional ones. It is hoped that the author would address this limitation in his future writings.

On China, the author notes that its rising military and economic prowess over the decades have empowered it to conveniently challenge the leadership of the United States and Russia on international security concerns, particularly nuclear arms control and non-proliferation. Although China’s arsenal may be less than the United States and Russia’s, the author feels that it is still risky due to its secretive and opaque strategic thinking. Although China suffers from inexperience and other asymmetries over Russia and the United States, it is essential that it participates in the strategic nuclear weapons reduction talks on an equal footing with both countries (Cimbala 2015). Engaging China on meaningful arms control and disarmament will be tough and time-consuming, but it is worth taking the risk as the dragon cannot be ignored.

In conclusion, The Nuclear Peace provides a scholarly analysis of the deterrence policies of the United States and Russia. It brilliantly examines the major roadblocks that frustrate their negotiations on nuclear issues. This book is a must-read for policymakers and diplomats involved in the protracted nuclear proliferation negotiations. Scholars interested in nuclear policy, Russian politics, American politics, military, and defence studies can also benefit.

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Notes on contributors

Tawseef Ahmad Mir

Tawseef Ahmad Mir is a Ph. D candidate at the Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir, India. The current research interest is in the dynamics and interplay of politics of identity formation and nuclear imbroglio in Iran.