Assessing nature’s contributions to people in a peri-urban protected area, southeast Brazil: integrating feedback loops and participatory scenario planning

ABSTRACT

Urban expansion is a key driver of change that has been affecting nature’s contributions to people (NCP) in peri-urban regions near metropolitan areas. In southeast Brazil, Campinas Environmental Protected Area (EPA) is a peri-urban, sustainable-use protected area located within the metropolis of Campinas. Campinas EPA provides relevant NCP at the local and regional level, including water provision for 1.2 million people, nature-based tourism and food production. We conducted a participatory, qualitative assessment of past and future trends of NCP at Campinas EPA, in collaboration with the management council of the protected area. We collected data through direct observation, semi-structured interviews and scenario workshops. In our research process, we innovate using the NCP framework, a concept acknowledging multiple values and knowledge systems, coupled with ecosystem services, a concept already understood by management councilors. To assess past trends (2000–2020), we built a causal-loop diagram which depicts an amplifying feedback loop that fosters change towards an urban-dominated state. To assess future trends (2020–2040), we facilitated scenario planning workshops to create and contrast a business-as-usual and a desirable future for NCP, illustrated in the form of artistic panels. We identified a local agroecological farm that represents a seed of good anthropocenes – i.e. the farm is an innovative example of what a positive future could look like, thus providing relevant evidence on how to achieve a desirable scenario. Our findings shed light on how urban expansion within peri-urban areas impacts NCP and suggest strategies for positive transformations.

Key policy highlights

• Urban expansion is a driver of change affecting nature’s contributions to people in peri-urban social-ecological systems, including Campinas EPA. Key NCP at Campinas EPA include water, nature-based tourism, and food production.

• Participatory scenario planning can illustrate pathways towards desirable futures for people and nature. When depicted as graphical panels, scenarios can foster engagement and provide visualizations of the future.

• Collaborative research projects in partnership with management councils of protected areas can increase the relevance of results in informing decision-making processes, management, and planning.

• Using ecosystem services (a concept already understood by policymakers) and nature’s contributions to people (a concept acknowledging multiple values and knowledge systems) as complementary conceptual frameworks has proved effective in this place-based research.

• Organizations, initiatives and projects that enact justice and sustainability in practical ways in the present – i.e. seeds of good anthropocenes – can provide relevant evidence on how to achieve a positive future scenario.

EDITED BY:

• Laura Pereira

KEYWORDS:

• Social-ecological systems
• visioning
• modeling
• community-engaged research
• transdisciplinary research

Introduction

The concept of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) describes the diverse ways in which human societies depend on nature for quality of life (Pascual et al. 2017; Díaz et al. 2018). Although vital for human well-being, there is a global trend of degradation for most NCP (Díaz et al. 2019). In Brazil, assessments conducted by the Brazilian Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BPBES) indicate a similar trend of degradation and highlight the necessity of integrating conservation and development to safeguard the provision of NCP (BPBES 2018; Joly et al. 2019). Among various possible strategies to navigate this issue, Joly et al. (2019) suggest that sustainable-use protected areas can be a useful strategy to integrate conservation and development, since they predicate harmonic co-existence between people and nature (Brazilian Federal Law 9985/00). However, the creation and implementation of sustainable management strategies is a challenging task within sustainable-use protected areas because the provision of NCP is mediated by numerous interacting elements (e.g. institutions, governance structures, power relations, status of ecosystems, and drivers of change) (Ellis et al. 2019). Indeed, sustainable-use protected areas can be characterized as social-ecological systems due to the complexity that emerges from the interactions between multiple human and biophysical elements (Berkes and Folke 2002; Palomo et al. 2014).

Participatory assessments of NCP can be useful to navigate complexity and inform policymaking since they produce relevant evidence that considers different points of view, values, and perceptions (Bennett 2016; Malmborg et al. 2022). Further, participation of key stakeholders in research increases the quality and legitimacy of research findings, and applicability can be maximized if the stakeholders are also decision-makers (Cash et al. 2003; NRC 2008; Reed 2008). For instance, engaging with management councilors of a protected area can improve the integration of research findings within formal decision-making processes (Bennett 2016; Prado, Araujo, et al 2020). Moreover, since the provision of NCP is context-specific, perception-based assessments can also reveal the particularities of a given social-ecological system (Bennett 2016; Quintas-Soriano et al. 2018). For instance, there are publications in which regulating NCP, such as air quality, are perceived as most relevant (Martín-López et al. 2012), while there are others that point out to material contributions such as food (Brito et al. 2020), and others that highlight non-material contributions (Quintas-Soriano et al. 2018; García-Llorente et al. 2020; Coelho-Junior et al. 2021). Therefore, exploring the perceptions of management councilors can elucidate the context-specific ways in which decision-makers manage, experience, value, and benefit from NCP (Bennett 2016).

Participatory assessments of NCP within protected areas can be conducted in several different ways. The development of models has been commonly utilized in this regard (IPBES 2016; Rosa et al. 2017; Biggs et al. 2021). Models are qualitative or quantitative descriptions of key components of social-ecological systems and of the relationships between them (IPBES 2016). Causal-loop diagrams are qualitative models that graphically describe connections between elements of a system through causal relationships. Specifically, causal-loop diagrams are helpful in identifying interactions that occur in the form of feedback loops (Richardson 1986). Feedback loops are a key characteristic of complex systems that either foster or inhibit change within a social-ecological system (Meadows 2008; Preiser et al. 2018). By modeling interactions and feedback loops between the components of a social-ecological system, it is possible to understand how drivers of change are affecting the current status of NCP, as well as potential future trajectories (Enfors 2013; Johnson et al. 2022; Moraes et al. 2023). Thus, modelling can be an effective way to inform strategies for sustainable management of protected areas, particularly when conducted in a participatory manner that centers community engagement (Neugarten et al. 2018; Wentworth et al. 2024).

Scenarios have also been utilized as a methodology to assess NCP, oftentimes coupled with modelling efforts (Cork et al. 2023; Lembi et al. 2020). According to IPBES (2016), scenarios are possible futures of a social-ecological system. Scenarios can be depicted as narratives, artistic representations, projections, among other possibilities (Martin et al. 2022; Cork et al. 2023). While scenarios focus on a plethora of possible futures, a vision represents a desirable future state of a given social-ecological system (van der Helm 2009; Wiek and Iwaniec 2014). Participatory scenario planning is a methodology that has been commonly utilized by sustainability scholars to create visions and scenarios in a structured and collaborative way with diverse stakeholders (Peterson et al. 2003; Oteros-Rozas et al. 2015; Falardeau et al. 2019). Here, we conceptualize participatory scenario planning as a process that entails the development of scenarios that depict desirable and business-as-usual futures, as well as pathways towards desirable futures, conducted in collaboration with decision-makers (Lembi et al. 2024). In protected areas, including in Brazil, scenario planning has been empirically utilized as a tool for collaboration, especially because it can be useful to facilitate the mobilization of stakeholders, build shared understandings of a system, enable collective reflections, and inform decision-making and management processes (Oteros-Rozas et al. 2015; Kuiper et al. 2022; Prado et al. 2024).

A key challenge for scenario planning is the development of transformative visions that represent radical departures from current reality (McPhearson et al. 2021). According to Bennett et al. (2016), ongoing initiatives and projects that enact justice and sustainability in practical ways can offer clues and inspiration on what a positive future could effectively look like. Conceptualized as “seeds of good anthropocenes”, these initiatives are not yet dominant, but represent “pockets” of a positive future in the present (Bennett et al. 2016; Sharpe et al. 2016). Seeds are diverse and can take many shapes and forms. For instance, in an online platform that collates a database of seeds (https://goodanthropocenes.net/), a case study of green urban infrastructure is considered a seed because it utilizes innovative strategies for urban planning that consider NCP (Roach et al. 2008). When coupled with scenario planning, seeds are useful to inspire the development of transformative visions, help detail pathways to achieve the positive future, and foster agency in participants of scenario workshops (Falardeau et al. 2019). The seed approach has also been utilized for the development of creative and artistic representations of the future (e.g. Pereira et al. 2018; Falardeau et al. 2019). Positive and arts-based scenarios are useful to foster dialogue and engagement between different stakeholders (Martin et al. 2022; Vervoort et al. 2022), but they are still less adopted in sustainability science, in comparison with approaches that are explorative or predictive (McPhearson et al. 2016; Iwaniec et al. 2020; Bennett et al. 2021; Martin et al. 2022). Although seeds are often utilized as starting points for scenario planning (e.g. Pereira 2021), the approach is flexible enough to allow for adaptation to fit particular contexts (e.g. Falardeau et al. 2019).

Models, scenarios and seeds of good anthropocenes have been utilized to make sense of a broad array of sustainability challenges in diverse contexts. Within the context of sustainable-use protected areas in Brazil, a key issue is the expansion of urban areas (Joly et al. 2019). Indeed, by 2050, it is expected that 92% of the Brazilian population will inhabit cities (United Nations 2019). Urban expansion is defined as “the physical extension of the geographical footprint of towns, cities and metropolitan areas” (Angel 2023, p. 125). Urban expansion and a growing urban population have been leading to degradation of NCP, especially due to loss of native vegetation cover, pollution of water resources, displacement of agriculture and rural activities, among other possibilities (Angel 2023; Mansur et al. 2022; Lembi et al. 2020). In southeast Brazil, the expansion of metropolitan regions increases pressure on peri-urban areas that provide relevant NCP for both urban and peri-urban communities (Travassos and Portes 2018; ICLEI 2021). For example, in the state of São Paulo, the expansion of urban areas has increased pressure and demand on peri-urban reservoirs that supply water for urban residents; a growth in the search for urban and peri-urban green areas that can contribute to mental health and well-being; a growing demand for local organic food networks; and searching for housing in closer contact with nature in peri-urban areas (Jacobi et al. 2015; Silva et al. 2017; Felappi et al. 2024). Urban expansion also affects the ways in which people perceive and benefit from NCP, thus highlighting the material and non-material impacts of urbanization (Silva et al. 2017; Lapointe et al. 2021).

In Brazil, Environmental-Protected Areas (EPAs) are the most common category of sustainable-use protected areas due to the broad array of activities that are legally allowed within their boundaries, including agriculture, urban areas, and industrial production. The municipality of Campinas, southeast Brazil, is a metropolis with 1.2 million inhabitants that has a municipal EPA covering 27% of the municipal area (22,300 ha), known as Campinas EPA (or “APA Campinas”, for its Portuguese acronym). Campinas EPA encompasses the majority of remaining native forest fragments and rural areas of the municipality, which have been increasingly sought out by visitors for nature-based leisure and newcomers to a lifestyle in closer contact with nature (Santin 1999; Campinas 2018). Simultaneously, urban expansion is noteworthy at Campinas EPA: urbanized areas have more than doubled in size in 26 years, from 1.6% of the total area in 1993 to 4% in 2019 (Lembi 2021). Urban expansion has occurred mainly through construction of roads and new residential condominiums targeted at upper-middle class citizens. Importantly, Campinas EPA is also pivotal for water security of the entire municipality of Campinas, since it contains a watcher catchment point in the Atibaia River that supplies water for 94% of the 1.2 million inhabitants of Campinas (Campinas 2018). Broadly, these overall patterns suggest a change in the NCP that are provided by Campinas EPA, as well as NCP that people seek out in the region. However, the specific mechanisms that have been influencing changes in the status and trends of NCP remain underexplored in the literature.

Campinas EPA is managed by the municipal government and a management council that has a deliberative character. The management council includes different sectors of the municipal government, residents' associations, farmers and landowners’ associations, environmental non-governmental organizations, and universities. Thus, investigating the perceptions of management councilors at Campinas EPA provides a holistic exploration of diverse values and points of view from people working in different aspects of the local social-ecological system. Formally, elected representatives and councillors have influence over decision-making processes. Engaging with policymakers in academic research projects can increase credibility, legitimacy, and relevance of findings, especially when research is conducted with management councilors, rather than on councilors (Cash et al. 2003, Prado, Arauj, et al 2020; Reason and Bradbury 2013).

The aim of this work was to assess the past and future of trends in NCP within Campinas EPA. We adopted a participatory and qualitative approach that explored the perceptions of management councilors. We engaged with Campinas EPA’s management council in steps of research design, validation of findings, and communication of results. To assess how the availability and quality of NCP have changed from 2000 to 2020, we aimed to (i) identify NCP that occur locally, and those which are cited as being most relevant for quality of life; (ii) assess how drivers of change have been influencing NCP; (iii) identify projects, initiatives and organizations that conduct work aimed at conservation of NCP and that could be potential seeds of good anthropocenes. To explore alternative futures for NCP in a medium-term timeframe (i.e. 2040), we aimed to (iv) develop a business-as-usual and a desirable future scenario for NCP; (v) list and discuss actions to achieve the desirable scenario. Our approach is specifically tailored to examining perceptions of management councilors. Therefore, our results reflect the values and voices of this relevant group of stakeholders that are simultaneously policymakers and local knowledge holders. Ultimately, we aim that our findings can inform discussions and decision processes within council meetings. Nonetheless, we acknowledge that a plurality of views and perceptions regarding status and trends of NCP co-exist in the area, especially stemming from other stakeholders, such as residents and tourists.

Finally, a relevant premise that grounds our data analysis, results and discussion is the utilization of theoretical and empirical contributions from both concepts of ecosystem services and NCP. We frame our research in terms of NCP because the concept considers context-specific perspectives, values, and knowledge systems (Kadykalo et al. 2019), and we also utilize proposed categories (regulating, material and non-material) and a generic list of 18 NCP proposed by Díaz et al. (2018). In parallel, we utilize the ecosystem services nomenclature to engage with local stakeholders, since they are familiar with the concept, and it is officially adopted by the municipal government in formal institutions (including the management plan of the protected area and in other municipal laws). Hence, we also aim to argue on the complementarity and application of the two concepts in place-based research, moving beyond debates that dichotomize them.

Methods

Study area

The Campinas Environmental Protected Area (EPA) is a sustainable-use protected area located in the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo state, southeast Brazil (Figures 1 and 2). Historically, the area has been through cycles of extensive deforestation for sugarcane and coffee production, especially from the 18^th century to the first half of the 20^th century. After the 1930s, rural activities shifted to cattle ranching (Campinas 2018). In 2001, the protected area was legally established through Municipal Law 10.850 to protect relevant historical farms, forest fragments, and water resources. Covering 27% of the municipal area (approximately 22,300 ha), Campinas EPA is described as peri-urban due to its rural and urban features, with a mosaic of land uses that includes pastures, forest fragments, urban areas, eucalyptus plantations, agriculture, rivers, and small water reservoirs (Campinas 2018). Land tenure at Campinas EPA is mostly private, and 61% of officially registered properties are farms with over 150 ha in size. Even though 40.5% of the land at Campinas EPA is classified as pasture, a relevant portion of the local pasture is abandoned and degraded due to rural outmigration, a hilly landscape, and high costs of production (Campinas 2018; Lembi 2021). Simultaneously, small-scale agroecological farms have emerged within Campinas EPA (Lembi 2021). The Atibaia River is an important water body in the state of São Paulo that flows through Campinas EPA, including a water catchment point and a water treatment station that supplies water for 94% of Campinas population (1.2 million people; Campinas 2018). In 2019, efforts to build a dam within the boundaries of Campinas EPA were started. Located on the Jaguari River, the dam will be 650 m wide, flood 420 ha of land, and retain a water volume of 31,920,000 m³ (DAEE 2021a). According to the state government, the dam is needed for water security purposes (DAEE 2021a). Thus, these patterns of change in the region indicate a shift in Campinas EPA from its historical relevance as a large-scale agricultural area to novel land uses, with direct implications for NCP.

Figure 1. Location of Campinas EPA within the municipality of Campinas and neighboring municipalities, state of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil (Figure: Courtesy of Dr. Talita Terra).

Figure 2. Landscape at Campinas Environmental Protected Area (EPA), São Paulo state, southeast Brazil. (a) View from an outlook that is highly visited by tourists in which it is possible to observe a hilly landscape, eucalyptus plantations, pasture, and some infrastructure; (b) Jaguari River; (c) Environmental education center sited in a deactivated train station, located at an urban area; (d) Construction of a dam under progress; (e) Pasture and eucalyptus plantations; (f) Agroecological farm ‘Sítio Vale das Cabras’ bordering a fence with a pasture area. (Photos: Rafael Flora (A, B); Rafael Lembi (C, D, E, F)).

Data collection and analysis

Our research adopted a participatory approach. Our key partners were the municipal Secretariat of Green, Environment, and Sustainable Development (hereafter, Secretariat of Environment), which is the formal manager of the protected area, and the presidency of the management council of Campinas EPA, which is responsible to structure and facilitate the monthly meetings of the council. These partnerships enabled our participation in council meetings and contact with the 19 organizations that compose the council. In September 2019, we presented a first version of the research proposal to the council and received relevant input to refine our research design. Subsequent contact with councilors and direct observation of four council meetings and two NGO meetings from September to December 2019 enabled the development of rapport through face-to-face interactions. Due to social distancing measures imposed by COVID-19 as of March 2020, further contact, attendance of meetings and data collection occurred online. Considering both in-person and online efforts, a total of 14 council meetings, NGO meetings and municipal government meetings were attended. Interactions with management councilors followed the ethical guidelines indicated by the university ethics committee (approval under the process CAAE 20,467,619.40000.8142).

To assess the status and past trends (2000–2020) of NCP, we conducted 18 semi-structured interviews with management councilors. In particular, we asked councilors to identify NCP that occur in the area; NCP that are perceived as being most relevant to support quality of life; and how NCP have changed over the past 20 years (2000–2020) (Supplemental File 1). To classify mentioned NCP, we utilized generic categories proposed by Díaz et al. (2018) to code responses in a qualitative way. Simultaneously, we utilized the ecosystem service nomenclature to engage in conversations with management councilors, since it is a concept that is officially recognized and adopted in formal management plan and municipal laws. To identify potential seeds of good anthropocenes, we inquired about organizations, initiatives, and projects that conduct work targeted at conservation of NCP. Interviews usually lasted for about 60 minutes and were conducted using Google Meet online videoconferencing platform or telephone calls, being simultaneously recorded and subsequently transcribed. Transcripts were analyzed using principles of qualitative data analysis based on thematic coding, using codes that emerged both from consulted literature (e.g. NCP categories) and the dataset itself (Saldaña 2013; Miles et al. 2020). We utilized software QDA Data Miner Lite (Provalis Research) to analyze qualitative data.

To depict the interactions between drivers of change, NCP, and other components of the social-ecological system, we developed a causal-loop diagram using software Vensim (PLE 8.2.1 × 64 version, Ventana Systems Inc.). The causal-loop diagram focused on the NCP that were perceived by councilors as most relevant for quality of life, from each category of regulating, material, and non-material NCP. To develop the model, we utilized data from the interviews and observations of meetings. Preliminary versions of the model were presented at a council meeting to obtain feedback from management councilors and a final version was also evaluated by a member of the Secretariat of Environment to validate findings.

To assess potential future trajectories (2020–2040) of NCP within Campinas EPA, we organized and facilitated two participatory scenario planning workshops. During the virtual workshops, three main outcomes were anticipated: co-creation of a business-as-usual scenario, considering the patterns of change of the last 20 years; co-creation of a vision of a desirable future scenario for NCP; and a list of actions to achieve the vision and avoid the business-as-usual scenario (Supplemental File 2). The scenarios were created using 2040 as the end goal (i.e. 20 years in the future) because longer time horizons are appointed as being more difficult to anticipate (Nalau and Cobb 2022). Recordings of the workshop informed the work of a graphical facilitator who designed an artistic panel that represented each scenario. Both workshops were transcribed and data analysis followed the same set of principles as the interviews (Saldaña 2013; Miles et al. 2020). Data collection efforts are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1. Summary of data collection activities conducted with members of the management council of Campinas EPA.

		Interviews (n = 18)	Scenarios workshop 1 (n = 7)	Scenarios workshop 2 (n = 13)
Sex	Male	9	3	1
	Female	9	4	12
Type of organization	NGOs	6	-	5
	Municipal government	6	2	4
	Residents’ associations	3	2	3
	Farmers and landowners’ associations	2	3	1
	University	1	-	-

Results

Social-ecological factors influencing availability and quality of NCP at Campinas EPA from 2000 to 2020

We identified 15 NCP at Campinas EPA that are perceived by management councilors (Table 2). Regulation of water quantity, food production, and physical and psychological experiences in nature were the most cited regulating, material, and non-material NCP, respectively. In Table 2, we outline examples for each NCP that was cited, the number of respondents who mentioned each NCP, and the number of overall mentions to each NCP across all interviews. Through the use of the 18 generic categories of NCP proposed by Díaz et al. (2018), we were able to deductively code the data, while being mindful that a same response (e.g. a river) could indicate a different NCP (e.g. a river can supply water or provide leisure opportunities). In parallel, we utilized the ecosystem service concept to conduct interviews, considering that councilors were familiar with the vocabulary due to its adoption in council meetings and formal institutions within Campinas EPA.

Table 2. Nature’s contributions to people perceived by management councilors as occurring at the Campinas Environmental Protected Area (EPA), using categories outlined by Díaz et al. (2018) (n = 18 interviewees). ‘Number of respondents’ column indicates the number of interviewees who mentioned each NCP. ‘Number of times each NCP was mentioned’ column indicates how many times each NCP was mentioned in the overall interviews, considering that the same NCP could be mentioned in different ways, as demonstrated in the Examples column.

Categories	Nature’s contributions to people	Number of respondents (n = 18)	Number of times NCP was mentioned	Examples
Regulation	Regulation of water quantity	17	19	Atibaia River, water production, water springs
	Regulation of climate	9	10	Mild temperature and climate, carbon retention
	Regulation of air quality	9	9	Clean air without pollution
	Habitat creation and maintenance	8	8	Biodiversity, vegetation, forest, fauna and flora
	Formation and protection of soils	4	5	Restored soil, living soil, soil retention
	Pollination and dispersal of seeds	4	4	Pollination, animals that bury seeds
	Regulation of water quality	3	3	Pure water
	Regulation of detrimental organisms and biological processes	1	1	Plants that repel pests in agriculture
Material	Food production	8	8	Agriculture, cattle ranching
	Raw material	2	2	Wood production
	Medicinal resources	1	1	Phytotherapy
	Energy production	1	1	Small hydroelectric plant at Jaguari river
Non-material	Physical and psychological experiences	16	34	Tourism, leisure, scenic beauty, contact with nature
	Supporting identities	2	2	Sense of place
	Learning and inspiration	1	1	School visits to farms, astronomical observatory

Considering the broad array of mentioned NCP, we focus on the next steps of our work in the three NCP most cited regulating, material, and non-material NCP – i.e. regulation of water quantity, food production, and physical and psychological experiences in nature, respectively. By focusing on these NCP, we were able to have a holistic understanding of interactions between elements of the social-ecological system that have been influencing NCP from 2000 to 2020. To qualitatively depict the social-ecological factors that have been influencing the most cited NCP in each category, we developed a causal-loop diagram (Figure 3). Food production and regulation of water quantity are perceived as decreasing from the period of 2000 to 2020 (red boxes), whereas physical and psychological experiences, such as nature tourism, have been increasing (blue box). Broadly, observed interactions indicate that urban expansion is the main driver of change affecting the availability and quality of NCP.

Figure 3. Causal-loop diagram describing social-ecological factors and interactions that have been influencing most cited regulating, material and non-material nature’s contributions to people (NCP) at Campinas EPA from 2000 to 2020. The NCP are highlighted in boxes: the red box of ‘regulation of quantity’ and ‘food production’ indicates a trend of decrease in the ecosystem service; the blue box of ‘physical and psychological experiences in nature’ indicates a trend of increase. The red arrows and the letter ‘A’ represent interactions that are part of an amplifying feedback mechanism. A ‘+’ indicates change in the same direction and ‘-’ indicates change in opposite directions.

In the diagram, it is possible to observe that there are interacting elements that reinforce each other through an amplifying feedback loop (A1). This feedback loop is fostering the expansion of urban areas. Urban expansion has been affecting rural areas, as demonstrated by the nodes of the diagram that connect “profitable urban land uses” to a decrease in “rural activities”. In parallel, urban expansion impacts local ecosystems with direct consequences for regulation of water quantity, which can be observed in the nodes that connect “construction of urban infrastructure and residential condominiums” to “deforestation”, “erosion and siltation of watercourses”, and “impermeabilization of soil and burial of water springs”. Finally, the diagram also depicts how increasing urbanization in the municipality of Campinas has been leading to an increased “search for housing in contact with nature”, especially by upper-middle class citizens, as well as an increase in “search for leisure in contact with nature”.

Participatory scenario planning for NCP at Campinas EPA

Business-as-usual scenario

Considering a 20-year time horizon, Figure 4 depicts how management councilors envision a business-as-usual future for the three most cited regulating, non-material and material NCP (i.e. regulation of water quantity, physical and psychological experiences in nature, and food production). To enable a more engaging discussion during the workshop, we presented the categories of NCP that we adopted more broadly as water (in blue), nature-based tourism and scenic view (in yellow), and food production (in red). In the panel, there is also a transversal axis in gray that represents aspects that permeate all three NCP (Figure 4). Overall, this scenario highlights that patterns of degradation observed from 2000 to 2020 are likely to continue and intensify until 2040, representing an extension of the current reality. For instance, water is perceived as having decreased at Campinas EPA over the last 20 years due to soil erosion and siltation of watercourses, and management councilors indicate that this past trend is likely to continue. Consequently, this will lead to water scarcity and worsening of water quality in the future.

Figure 4. Business-as-usual scenario for the three most cited regulating, material and non-material nature’s contributions to people (NCP) at Campinas EPA: water (in blue), nature-based tourism and scenic view (in yellow), food production (in red), and a transversal axis that encompasses the three NCP (in gray). Designed by João Ricardo Lagazzi Rodrigues.

From 2000 to 2020, nature tourism is perceived as having increased and scenic beauty is perceived as remaining stable. However, when discussing the business-as-usual scenario for this NCP, participants indicate that negative impacts of visitation itself (e.g. accidental fires caused by tourists and environmental degradation caused by off-road motorcycles) are likely to negatively affect tourism because they will impact the scenic beauty sought by visitors at Campinas EPA. Moreover, some impactful activities will intensify the sensation of insecurity among landowners because visitors often trespass private properties to practice off-road motorcycling. The narrow scope of tourism options and the absence of local hotels and inns will continue to restrict tourism to daily activities, which is less profitable for local entrepreneurs, in comparison with tourists that could stay overnight.

Food production has decreased between 2000 and 2020 and is envisioned as continuing to decrease due to rural outmigration, increased costs of production and urban expansion. Consequently, agriculture will likely become even more scarce, less diverse and abandoned. Indeed, as noted by a farmer who is a councilor: “

If nothing changes in the next 20 years, I won’t be complaining about agriculture in 20 years, because I’ll have stopped producing (…) in 5 years. If the situation worsens, it will be impractical for me to continue working, investing”.

Management councilors also perceive that there is insufficient dialogue and collaboration between the multiple organizations that are based at Campinas EPA. Further, they also perceive a lack of support from public municipal policies, which affects all NCP. Nevertheless, management councilors acknowledge that communication between non-governmental stakeholders and the municipal government has improved over the last 20 years. They also perceive that some of the actions outlined in the management plan are likely to be implemented, thus contributing to conservation of NCP. However, this is still considered insufficient to prevent a business-as-usual scenario from occurring in which Campinas EPA becomes an “abandoned and degraded” area.

Desirable scenario

The desirable scenario for 2040 follows the same pattern of colors as the business-as-usual scenario (Figure 5). Regarding water, participants highlighted plenty of good-quality water in a desirable future. Springs and riparian forests are envisioned as recovered, allowing for groundwater to be recharged. Local actions to retain rainwater (e.g. construction of small reservoirs) are mentioned as being implemented. A desirable future for water includes coordination of actions at the watershed level and increasing available data to guide decision-making.

Figure 5. Graphical depiction of a desirable future for the three most relevant NCP at Campinas EPA: water (in blue), nature-based tourism and scenic view (in yellow), food production (in red). Designed by João Ricardo Lagazzi Rodrigues.

Regarding tourism and scenic beauty, management councilors envision a future with more available information, infrastructure (e.g. better road access and informative signs, options for overnight stay), safety and law enforcement, and sensibilized visitors due to environmental education efforts. Tourism is highlighted as an opportunity to integrate conservation and development. Furthermore, an increased involvement of private landowners in tourism planning is also perceived as relevant, as the majority of Campinas EPA is privately owned.

The desirable future for food production includes diversified agriculture that is integrated with local eucalyptus forestry. The creation of a brand for food locally grown and produced is also mentioned (i.e. a certification scheme with a geographical indication mark of local products). As a result, a recognized local brand could enable an increase in the monetary value of local produce. To foster the sale and purchase of local produce, logistical integration with local markets is highlighted.

Challenges and actions to achieve the desirable future

The creation of both a business-as-usual and a desirable scenario was instrumental in contrasting what is likely to happen and what is desired to happen. In order to achieve the desirable future for NCP, management councilors proposed actionable strategies to overcome key issues and challenges. We identified four major themes that are relevant to the achievement of a desirable future: collaborative management; communication and education; infrastructure and law enforcement; integrated conservation and development (a full list of challenges and associated management actions can be found in Supplemental File 3). These categories are not discrete, and some degree of overlap between what is described within each category was identified.

Within the collaborative management category, management councilors indicate that there is a need to increase collaboration among stakeholders and engagement with the local population. Residents are described as not being politically mobilized and not actively involved with strategies, plans, and actions to conserve NCP. An emphasis is given to improving communication between the management council and the municipal government. The improvement of dialogue through diverse communication channels is mentioned as a way to build trust between different stakeholders.

Regarding communication and education, management councilors cited that most of the local population and visitors are not aware that they are inside a protected area with specific laws and regulations. Residents and tourists are often insensitive to local environmental conditions, and practices such as littering and trespassing of private properties are common. The implementation of actions that stimulate care and stewardship among tourists and residents is seen as a pathway to achieve the desirable future. Furthermore, because of the great number of formal institutions currently in effect at Campinas EPA, management councilors themselves are sometimes unsure about which activities are allowed or forbidden.

Infrastructure and law enforcement are also perceived as essential for achieving the desirable future. Some rural neighborhoods lack proper sanitation and waste collection systems; have poor internet and phone service; and have unpaved roads that hamper vehicle access. Moreover, there is an overall sensation of a decrease in safety, as petty crimes and burglaries have become more common over the years. Management councilors claim that they often report irregular activities to authorities but seldom see any response. Hence, management actions to improve infrastructure in rural areas and law enforcement are appointed as necessary to achieve the desirable scenario.

Integration of economic development and biodiversity conservation is another key theme. The perceived dichotomy between conservation and development itself is reported as a challenge for achieving the desirable scenario. To overcome this, inclusive models of development that consider the reality of people from different socioeconomic backgrounds and the local ecosystems are seen as necessary. Integration of local rural products with local markets and the creation of a specialized Secretariat of Agriculture within the municipal government are also actions that could contribute on this behalf. Further, widening the scope and increasing funding for the municipal program of payment for environmental services is cited as a key strategy.

The implementation of the identified management actions is overall perceived as heavily relying on the leadership and work of the municipal government. Participants agreed that the Secretariat of Environment, which is the official manager of the protected area, should be present and involved in all the actions. Collaborative work with NGOs, residents’ associations, farmers and landowners’ associations, other municipal secretariats and departments is also considered important, however secondary. All the actions listed by participants were perceived as urgent, especially those within collaborative management and infrastructure categories. The 20-year horizon proposed for the discussion (i.e. 2040) was considered too long to implement the actions and achieve the desirable scenario. Thus, according to management councilors, all of the issues and challenges should be tackled as soon as possible, or otherwise the business-as-usual future will be unlikely to avoid.

Responses to change in NCP: identifying potential seeds of good anthropocenes

Several groups and organizations are leading efforts to implement some of the actions that are described as being necessary to achieve a desirable scenario. We identified current projects and initiatives that are already being carried out by local stakeholders to conserve or sustainably increase the provision of the three most cited NCP. Successful local initiatives can serve as blueprints and innovative examples on how to achieve the desirable scenario – i.e. they could potentially be a seed of good anthropocenes (Bennett et al. 2016). A total of 21 projects and initiatives were identified, led by the municipal government (8), non-governmental organizations and associations (9), private business and landowners (10), and a university (2) (a full list is available at Supplemental File 4). These initiatives have a broad scope, including environmental education events, a payment for environmental services program, and scientific research. Physical and psychological experiences in nature were the most targeted NCP for the implementation of projects and initiatives, especially by the municipal government. In contrast, food production was the least targeted, with interventions mostly stemming from private landowners and rural associations.

Overall, the identified responses show how local stakeholders are not merely bystanders to the degradation of NCP at Campinas EPA. Rather, local organizations actively address many of the issues and challenges that hamper the achievement of the desirable future. However, the majority of local initiatives and projects do not work in collaboration with one another or target a single NCP. Few exceptions are noted. For instance, a local agroecological farm (‘Sítio Vale das Cabras’) is one of the few initiatives that successfully managed to articulate actions around the three most cited NCP simultaneously. The owners of this farm develop actions (i) retaining rainwater in their land through the use of small water reservoirs and implementing a sustainable system for the depuration of domestic effluents (regulation of water quantity and quality); (ii) growing and coordinating the logistics of selling and distributing organic food (including artisanal products from other local farms) through a community supported agriculture scheme (food production); and (iii) hosting courses and guided visits to schools, universities and other interested parties at the location (physical and psychological experiences in nature). Additionally, the property was constructed using sustainable techniques and materials (bioconstruction) and has a system for the generation of solar energy that shares the produced energy with other properties through a cooperative scheme. As such, this farm is an existing property that could serve as a model on how to achieve the desirable future by articulating actions that target multiple NCP simultaneously. Here, we conceptualize ‘Sítio Vale das Cabras’ as a seed of good anthropocenes because it was the only initiative that we were able to conduct field visits to empirically confirm their ongoing efforts and projects, prior to the onset of the pandemic. Further studies are warranted to assess whether other initiatives that were identified could also be classified as seeds.

Discussion

An amplifying feedback loop is driving change towards an increasingly urbanized state

Our work unpacks the social-ecological dynamics that are driving urban expansion at Campinas EPA and illuminates possible consequences it has for NCP. Broadly, our causal-loop diagram reveals that land abandonment and urban expansion are leading to a decrease in food production, expansion of urban infrastructure is negatively impacting streams and water springs, and there is an increase in physical and psychological experiences in nature that are sought out by new residents and tourists. In particular, our analysis indicates that urban expansion at Campinas EPA is being fostered by an amplifying feedback loop. Amplifying feedback loops are characterized by a reaction of self-enhancement – i.e. the feedback loop is fostering change in the system because the interacting elements reinforce each other (Figure 3; Meadows 2008). Therefore, the feedback loop is promoting a shift towards an increasingly urbanized system state.

The identified feedback loop is driving change through two different mechanisms. First, farmers in rural areas have been experiencing increased costs in production due to rural outmigration and lack of rural workforce, poor rural infrastructure, a hilly topography that hampers mechanization of agriculture, and a lack of support from municipal policies. Indeed, management councilors who are farmers report an unequal distribution of development interventions: urban areas have benefited from paving of roads and expansion of water and sanitation infrastructure, while rural areas of Campinas EPA still have unpaved rural roads in poor conditions, poor phone and internet service, and some neighborhoods are still not connected to the municipal water distribution system. As an outcome, this has been leading to land abandonment (Lembi 2021).

Simultaneously, there is a spur in the construction of residential condominiums near urban centers because more people want to live at Campinas EPA to feel closer to nature and escape issues such as urban violence and pollution. Indeed, between 1993 and 2019, urban areas have increased by 2.5 times (1.6% of the total area in 1993, 4% in 2019), mainly through the construction of roads and new residential condominiums (Lembi 2021). Specifically, 45% of the urban area is made up of 23 residential condominiums that are built as gated communities with controlled access (Campinas 2018). These condominiums are advertised as safe and exclusive natural refuges for upper-middle class citizens (Trevisan and Paes 2009). Therefore, urban expansion is being driven both by an increase in search for housing, as well as land abandonment in rural areas. Through the causal-loop diagram, it was possible to explore how this phenomenon impacts NCP at Campinas.

Another effect of urban expansion is that touristic landmarks within Campinas EPA have become easier to access through improved road access, thus contributing to an increased flux of people for weekend activities (e.g. short-circuit hiking trails and restaurants that offer typical rural cuisine). As an outcome, increased visitation has been negatively impacting the same landscape features that people seek to enjoy in the area due to littering, impacts of off-road motorcycling, and overcrowding of people and vehicles in key landmarks. Even though tourism has been appointed as a key strategy to integrate conservation and development within protected areas in Brazil (Lembi et al. 2022), our results indicate that there is still a lack of action to mitigate negative impacts of the activity within Campinas EPA.

According to Trevisan and Paes (2009), the form of urban expansion that is occurring at Campinas EPA is linked to spatial socioeconomic segregation and the privatization of public areas. Considering the findings of Trevisan and Paes (2009), and the fact that Campinas EPA contains the majority of native forest fragments within the municipality of Campinas (Santin 1999; ICLEI 2021), it is possible that the current pattern of urban expansion may be further entrenching inequalities by limiting who gets to benefit from living close to nature. Thus, this panorama highlights the consequences of urban expansion that go beyond biophysical modifications of the landscape (Silva et al. 2017; Lapointe et al. 2021). Understanding the ways in which different people at Campinas EPA benefit (or not) from NCP is fundamental to inform management strategies that are grounded in justice and sustainability (Benetti and Langemeyer 2021; Loos et al. 2022). Our findings can help inform the development and implementation of management strategies that seek to address the amplifying feedback loop that is the driving force behind patterns of change influencing NCP. However, further studies are warranted to detail the ways in which different people are experiencing urban expansion and benefiting from NCP at Campinas EPA.

Working towards a desirable future

The development of positive vision is key for transformations towards sustainability, since envisioning a desirable future is arguably one of the first steps towards concretely achieving it (Moore et al. 2014; McPhearson et al. 2016). By thinking about the characteristics and values that describe a future as being positive, it is possible to make sense of what efforts are needed in the present to achieve it (Martin et al. 2022; Harmáčková et al. 2023). The management plan describes the following vision for the future of Campinas EPA: ‘to be recognized as a sustainable-use protected area within a metropolitan context, where people and nature are mutually benefited, creating prosperity’ (Campinas 2018; free translation from Portuguese). Our scenario planning workshops detailed the specific elements that constitute a future that is prosperous and desirable, from the perspective of management councilors. For instance, it is possible to observe that the graphical representations of the developed scenarios prioritize a systems approach that is attentive to both social dimensions (e.g. certification schemes for local agricultural products) and ecological dimensions (e.g. restoration of vegetation). In a scenario process led by Raudsepp-Hearne et al. (2020), the authors note that integrating social and ecological dynamics was a challenging task. We suggest that using NCP as the starting point for participatory scenario planning may contribute to a more holistic development of scenarios, since NCP describes the interface between social and ecological dimensions.

The scenarios also illustrate how councilors value landscape multifunctionality within Campinas EPA. In the panel depicting a positive future (Figure 5), it is possible to observe a vision of the future in which multiple NCP are provided simultaneously and coexist in a synergetic way. Indeed, planning for landscape multifunctionality is a useful strategy for conservation and sustainable use of NCP (García-Llorente et al. 2012; Landis 2017). Our study envisions how a multifunctional landscape could effectively look like in the future. Nonetheless, as noted by Nieto-Romero et al. (2016), connecting the outcomes of scenario workshops with concrete actions remains a challenging task. Evaluating the potential impact of scenario planning workshops on decision-making remains an underexplored frontier within Campinas EPA and the broader literature on scenarios (Cork et al. 2023).

Several of the suggested actions to achieve a desirable future were aligned with formal programs included in the management plan (Campinas 2019), thus highlighting synergies between our findings and the official planning for Campinas EPA. However, one of the main challenges is how to concretely implement these plans and actions (Nieto-Romero et al. 2016). Distinctions between what is institutionally established (‘de jure’) and what happens in reality (‘de facto’) is common in protected area management (Borrini-Feyerabend et al. 2013). Addressing the mismatches between formal institutions, their effective implementation, the reality of the local population, and the available municipal budget for municipal protected areas characterizes a complex governance dilemma that has also been observed in other protected areas in Brazil (Adams et al. 2008; Prado, de Castro, et al. 2020). Considering the actions highlighted in the workshops, two key strategies emerge as being potentially useful in the achievement of the desirable scenario within a 20-year timeframe: a political mobilization to pressure municipal politicians to direct more personnel, budget, resources to Campinas EPA; and the fostering and upscaling of local seeds of good anthropocenes. These two possibilities could work in synergy towards the desirable scenario described here, as well as the official vision outlined by the management plan (Campinas 2019). Identifying barriers and opportunities for upscaling and mainstreaming actions conducted by seeds is another topic worth investigating on this behalf (Lam et al. 2020).

Finally, our study highlights the relevance of identifying potential seeds of good anthropocenes to gain practical guidance on how to bring about a positive future, as well as novel methodological insights on how to incorporate the seeds approach within scenario planning. For instance, seeds of good anthropocenes are often utilized as a starting point to guide and inspire the participatory development of scenarios and visions (e.g. Pereira et al. 2018, 2020; Hamann et al. 2020; Raudsepp-Hearne et al. 2020; Pereira 2021; Kuiper et al. 2022; Rutting et al. 2022). In our study, however, we first facilitated the co-creation of scenarios, and then used potential seeds to make sense of possible strategies that can connect the present to a desirable future. We identified that an existing seed (farm ‘Sítio Vale das Cabras’) could provide evidence on ways to concretely achieve the vision because it develops real-world work targeting the conservation of multiple NCP in a holistic manner. Another key point of distinction is that the seeds approach focuses on positive futures (e.g. Hamann et al. 2020; Pereira 2021). In our study, we note that developing both a business-as-usual and a desirable scenario helps to make sense of distinctions between them, which makes it easier to identify and create strategies that can simultaneously avoid the business-as-usual future and achieve the positive vision. Other studies have also adapted the seeds approach to fit particular contexts (e.g. Falardeau et al. 2019), thus highlighting the flexibility and usefulness of the approach. Here, as an outcome of our approach, we introduce novel ways to utilize the seeds approach for scenario planning in place-based research.

Beyond dichotomies: integrating the concepts of ecosystem services and nature’s contributions to people in place-based, social-ecological research

Over the last three decades, there has been a growing number of publications on ecosystem services, thus highlighting the usefulness of the concept (Costanza et al. 2017; Pires et al. 2018). In parallel, the ecosystem services concept has also been criticized for its excessive focus on monetary and utilitarian values of nature (Schröter et al. 2014; Pascual et al. 2017). The concept of nature’s contributions to people has been proposed, aiming to recognize diverse worldviews, the co-production of benefits between people and nature, and to further stimulate dialogues across disciplines and within science-policy arenas (Pascual et al. 2017; Díaz et al. 2018). While academics have been debating the extent to which the NCP concept contributes to theoretical development of ecosystem services (Braat et al. 2018; Díaz et al. 2018; Kenter 2018; Peterson et al. 2018; Kadykalo et al. 2019; Pires et al. 2020), it is worth noting that the ecosystem services nomenclature is still widely utilized in policy formulation around the world, and also within the municipality of Campinas.

As a perception-based study, we opted to utilize the NCP framework to guide our theoretical framing and analysis. Specifically, this framework was useful because it explicitly recognizes the role of culture in mediating interactions between people and the environment, emphasizes context-specific perspectives, and proposes a fluid classification of benefits across regulating, material and non-material categories (Díaz et al. 2018; Kadykalo et al. 2019). However, when engaging with management councilors at Campinas EPA, we opted to use the ecosystem services vocabulary to have conversations, since they were familiar with the concept. Thus, we argue for the relevance of research that goes beyond the understanding of the theoretical differences between these concepts and emphasizes the potential for combining them simultaneously in place-based studies. By using both concepts of ecosystem services and NCP, we were able to enrich our data collection and analysis.

Using management councilors’ perceptions to assess nature’s contributions to people

The use of perceptions as a source of evidence to assess NCP helps detail the context-specific ways in which people depend on nature (Bennett 2016). Our findings resonate with the argument that place-based research is vital to identify and assess the trends of particular NCP that occur in specific social-ecological systems (Quintas-Soriano et al. 2018). At Campinas EPA, using perceptions of management councilors to investigate NCP enabled a more nuanced understanding of the scales and levels of social-ecological processes occurring at Campinas EPA. For instance, during interviews, councilors stated that there is an ongoing decrease in the quantity of water in local watercourses. Simultaneously, available biophysical data indicate that water flow rates of the two major rivers in the region have been predominantly steady over the last 20 years (DAEE 2021b). This panorama suggests that our results are representative of a phenomenon that is occurring at a smaller scale: water quantity has been decreasing within local water springs, brooks and streams, which are small and difficult to monitor from a biophysical perspective. Campinas EPA encompasses the majority of water springs in the municipality, and there is a single report by the municipal government that assessed the status of water springs in one subbasin. Results from this report indicate that from 182 identified water springs, 79 (43%) were poorly conserved (Campinas 2012). Indeed, as Bennett (2016) notes, perception studies are helpful to overcome the barriers of costly, long-term quantitative monitoring. Thus, studies such as ours can be helpful in identifying the status and trends of NCP at a level that can be impracticable to monitor through conventional approaches.

Conclusion

In this study, we conducted a participatory, qualitative assessment of past (2000–2020) and future trends (2020–2040) of NCP at a peri-urban, sustainable-use protected area in southeast Brazil. We innovate by articulating the empirical application of both concepts of ecosystem services and NCP in place-based research. We were able to assess how Campinas EPA is a provider of multiple NCP that contribute to quality of life of the local and regional population of Campinas. Urban expansion is the key driver of change affecting NCP, and an amplifying feedback loop is fostering change towards an increasingly urbanized state. Through our participatory scenario planning process, we were able to create a business-as-usual and a desirable scenario, depicted in the form of graphical illustration. In doing so, we were able to identify characteristics that describe a desirable future for NCP in 20 years from now, contrast them to business-as-usual scenarios, and identify key strategies and actions that can foster positive transformations. We discuss how ongoing self-organized projects, initiatives, and organizations (i.e. seeds of good anthropocenes) can contribute to developing actionable pathways for a desirable future and highlight a local agroecological farm as an example. We experiment with an approach that utilizes seeds to make sense of actions and strategies to achieve a positive future, instead of using them as the starting point for development of visions and scenarios. Moreover, we also experiment with utilizing the seeds approach in a process that creates both positive and business-as-usual futures. We highlight the relevance of collaboration between university-based researchers and stakeholders who are decision-makers and local knowledge holders to co-produce actionable knowledge that can inform sustainable management of NCP. Finally, our work illuminates the ways in which urban expansion affects NCP and suggests strategies for positive transformations. Considering that urban expansion will further increase in the Global South, our findings may carry implications for other peri-urban protected areas within similar contexts.

Acknowledgement

We thank members of the management council of Campinas EPA (Conselho Gestor da Área de Proteção Ambiental de Campinas - CONGEAPA) and city of Campinas Secretariat of Environment (Secretaria de Clima, Meio Ambiente e Sustentabilidade da Prefeitura de Campinas) for the support during the research process. We thank João Ricardo Lagazzi Rodrigues for graphical facilitation of scenario planning workshops and Ana Carolina Esteves Dias for support in facilitation and planning of workshops. We also thank three anonymous reviewers for constructive feedback in the review process.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary Material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2024.2377636

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico [Grant 131695/2019-3]; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior [Finance Code 001 (Grant 88887.388304/2019-00)]; Universidade Estadual de Campinas [Graduate Program in Ecology (Call 03, 04/2019)].