A comparison of lag–length selection techniques in tests of Granger causality between money growth and inflation: evidence for the US, 1959–86

Abstract

This paper employs the Granger test to examine the causal relationship between growth in the money supply and inflation for the US over the period 1959 to 1986. Alternative procedures, including both statistical search and non–statistical ad hoc methods, are utilized to determine the order of the bivariate distributed lag models used in implementing the test. In general, the results show feedback between movements in the money supply and price level changes. Unlike the results of Thornton and Batten (1985), one of the ad hoc methods for lag–length determination is found to perform somewhat better than the statistical search methods in correctly assessing the causal relationships involving money growth and inflation.