Convergence in Relation To Level of Societal Development

Abstract

A classic version of convergence theory was proposed by Marion Levy as part of his theory of modernization: If and as the level of modernization increases (defined as a higher ratio of reliance upon inanimate energy and tools relative to animate energy), the level of structural uniformity among relatively modernized societies continually increases. I test this hypothesis by using the coefficient of variation (V) as the measure of convergence. I analyze a wide range of variables: level of economic development, capitalist market economy, demographic variables, technology, the state and political democracy, cognitive modernization, health, income inequality and poverty, gender particularism–universalism, and information and communications. Each variable is treated as one test of the hypothesis. The hypothesis is first tested by dividing 201 societies into quartiles representing four levels of development as of 1990, and comparing their V scores at one point in time (around the year 2000). Full confirmation of the hypothesis is a monotonic decline in V scores as we move from the least to the most developed societies; this is observed in 19 out of 51, or 37 percent, of the tests. The second set of tests is a stricter, longitudinal test of the hypothesis. Among the 21 societies already developed in 1965, as their level of development continued to rise from 1965 to the present, they became more convergent in 32 out of 45, or 71 percent, of the tests. Thus, variation in social structure is greater among less modernized than among more modernized societies, and this has implications for theories of globalization.

NOTES

Notes

¹ Of the 201 societies in the World Bank's World Development Indicators data set for 1990, by 2005, 187 are independent states; the other 14 are overseas territories of France (e.g., French Polynesia), the Netherlands (e.g., Aruba), Denmark (e.g., Greenland), the United Kingdom (e.g., Bermuda), the United States (e.g., Puerto Rico), or a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (e.g., Hong Kong).

² Pamela Paxton, using Bollen's measure of democracy, assigned 1995 democracy scores to 170 societies, and kindly provided the author with them in a personal communication on April 20, 2004.

³ Factors other than the level of societal development (telephones) also influence the “outcome variables” in Tables 1 and 2. I focus on the level of development because that was Levy's central independent variable. Multivariate analyses of how the level of development and other independent variables influence each of the outcome variables is beyond the scope of this article. My defense for not doing multivariate analysis is the robustness of my comparisons across the four levels of societal development.