Ensemble sensitivities of the real atmosphere: application to Mediterranean intense cyclones

Abstract

Ensemble sensitivity has been recently proposed as an alternative cheap approach to sensitivity analysis. We adapt it to compute climatological sensitivity estimates of intense Mediterranean cyclones using a climatology based of the ECMWF ERA-40 fields. A catalogue of 1202 events, objectively detected and classified in 25 clusters, is used in this study. Sensitivity fields are derived for each intense Mediterranean cyclone type by correlating the precursor conditions with the mature cyclones depths. Corrections to the raw sensitivity estimates are applied by means of the correlation coefficient. Further, a normalization based on the climatological spatial variability of the variance of the precursor conditions is used to derive the final sensitivity fields. The 24 h sensitivity information derived for each intense Mediterranean cyclone type is easily interpretable both in amplitude and distribution. A synthetic result combining the sensitivity fields for all 25 intense Mediterranean cyclone classes shows that the evolution of these high-impact systems 24 h prior to its maturity stage depends largely on structures located over Western Europe, the Northern African lands and parts of east North Atlantic. These results are in agreement and complement with previous results obtained with the expensive adjoint model, although further work is needed to objectively verify the results.