Testing the Stability of Recreational Fishing Participation Probabilities

Abstract

Forecasts of recreational fishing participation enable managers to anticipate changes in the number of anglers and future demand for fishing opportunities. Projections of recreational fishing participation have typically been calculated by estimating participation probabilities for cohorts of a given population and then applying those probabilities to forecasted changes in population size and demographic composition. The resulting predictions rely on the assumption that the estimated participation probabilities within each demographic cohort are constant over time. We tested this assumption using replicated surveys of marine recreational fishing participation that were conducted in 1994 and again in 2002–2003 for the northeastern U.S. coastal population from Maine to Virginia. Participation probabilities and forecasts obtained from the 1994 survey were compared with both actual participation rates and the estimated participation probabilities in the 2002–2003 survey. Results suggest that participation probabilities among demographic cohorts are not stable over time. Additional avenues for research are identified that could improve predictions of the changing demand for recreational fishing resources.