Equilibrium Analyses of a Population's Response to Recovery Activities: A Case Study with Atlantic Salmon

Abstract

Recovery planning for populations in decline requires a thorough understanding of how life history characteristics, environmental conditions, and human activities interact to determine how abundance changes through time. In a detailed case study of the declining population of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the Tobique River, New Brunswick, we demonstrate an equilibrium modeling approach to analyzing the dynamics of the population so as to identify stressors and predict the population-level response to potential recovery actions. Parameter values for the equilibrium analysis were obtained by fitting a life history model to population-specific data, including annual estimates of juvenile density and egg deposition as well as the number and age composition of emigrating smolts. Two unique aspects of the statistical analysis—standardization of the electrofishing data using a generalized linear model and scaling of the juvenile density estimates to total abundance using a catchability coefficient—significantly improved model fits and resulted in parameter estimates that were biologically realistic. The subsequent equilibrium analysis was used to evaluate how population size was expected to change in response to recovery actions focused on fish passage, marine survival, and freshwater production. Recovery actions focused only on freshwater habitat or fish passage were not sufficient to produce an equilibrium population size greater than zero; however, either factor could limit the effectiveness of other recovery actions if not included in the recovery plan. The case study highlights the complex dynamics that can limit population growth, illustrates the need to consider the full life cycle of a species as part of the recovery planning process, and shows that responses to multiple threats may be required to bring about recovery.