Curriculum-Based Measurement of Reading: Accuracy of Recommendations From Three-Point Decision Rules

Theodore J. Christ, PhD, has equity and royalty interests in, and will serve on the Board of Directors for, FastBridge Learning (FBL), a company involved in the commercialization of the Formative Assessment System for Teachers (FAST). The University of Minnesota also has equity and royalty interests in FBL. These interests have been reviewed and managed by the University of Minnesota in accordance with its conflict-of-interest policies.

The research reported here was supported by the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through Grant R324A130161 to the University of Minnesota. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Institute or the U.S. Department of Education.

Abstract.

Despite their widespread use, there is little research to support the accuracy of curriculum-based measurement of reading progress monitoring decision rules. The purpose of this study was to investigate the accuracy of a common data point decision rule. This study used a three-point rule with a goal line of 1.50 words read correctly per minute (WRCM) across six levels of true growth (range = 0–3 WRCM), two levels of dataset quality or residual (5 and 10 WRCM), and 13 levels of data collection (range = 3–15 weeks). We estimated the probability of a correct decision as well as the probability of each outcome (change instruction, increase the goal, maintain instruction) across each condition with probability theory and a spreadsheet program. In general, results indicate that recommendations are often inaccurate. Further, the probability of a correct recommendation is below chance in most situations. Results of multiple regression analyses indicate that residual, duration, and true growth interacted to influence decision accuracy. Results are discussed along with implications for future research and practice.

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Notes on contributors

Ethan R. Van Norman

Ethan R. Van Norman, PhD, is an assistant professor in the School Psychology program in the Department of Counseling and Psychological Services at Georgia State University. His research primarily focuses on evaluating and improving the technical adequacy of academic and behavioral measures used in schools. In addition, Dr. Van Norman conducts research aimed at building the capacity of educators and school psychologists to use data meaningfully to make sound educational decisions.

Theodore J. Christ

Theodore J. Christ, PhD, is a professor of school psychology in the Department of Educational Psychology and is the Director for the Center of Applied Research and Educational Improvement (CAREI) and Co-Director of the Research Institute for Problem Solving, which all reside at the University of Minnesota. It was his work in those roles that established him as the Founder and Chief Scientific Officer of FastBridge Learning (fastbridge.org). Dr. Christ is engaged to innovate techniques and technology to serve professional educators who seek to improve educational outcomes. He is interested and engaged with the content, methodology, analytics, technology, software, and people who pursue the same.