Evaluation of the Predictive Performance of Bayesian Dosing for Warfarin in Chinese Patients

Abstract

Aim: To evaluate the accuracy and predictive performance of Bayesian dosing for warfarin in Chinese patients. Materials & methods: Six multiple linear regression algorithms (Wei, Lou, Miao, Huang, Gage and IWPC) and a Bayesian method implemented in Warfarin Dose Calculator were compared with each other. Results: Six multiple linear regression warfarin dosing algorithms had similar predictive ability, except Miao and Lou. The mean prediction error of Bayesian priori and posteriori method were 0.01 mg/day (95% CI: -0.18 to 0.19) and 0.17 mg/day (95% CI: -0.05 to 0.29), respectively, and Bayesian posteriori method demonstrated better performance in all dose ranges. Conclusion: The Bayesian method showed a good potential for warfarin maintenance dose prediction in Chinese patients requiring less than 6 mg/day.

Keywords::

• Bayesian method
• multiple linear regression algorithm
• warfarin maintenance dose

Financial & competing interests disclosure

This study was supported by Minsheng Scientific Research (medical and health) Funded of Science and Technology Development of Shanghai Pudong New Area (2016 PKJ2016-Y58), Excellent Young Medical Personnel Funded of the Health and Family Planning Commission Construction of Shanghai Pudong New Area (2017 PWRq2017-14), Key Disciplines of Clinical Pharmacy of Health and Family Planning Commission of Shanghai Pudong New Area (2017 PWKxk2017-13), the Outstanding Leaders Training Program of Pudong Health Bureau of Shanghai (PWR12014-05), the Key Specialty Construction Project of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning (ZK2015B16), the Municipal Human Resources Development Program for Outstanding Leaders in Medical Disciplines in Shanghai (2017BR051). The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financialinvolvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed.

No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the enrolled patients and staff who participated in this study. The authors gratefully acknowledge the doctors and nurses of the Department of Cardiology and Neurology of Gongli Hospital, The Second Military Medical University (Shanghai, China).

Ethical disclosure

The authors state that they have obtained appropriate institutional review board approval or have followed the principles outlined in the Declaration of Helsinki for all human or animal experimental investigations. In addition, for investigations involving human subjects, informed consent has been obtained from the participants involved.

Author’s contributions

J Dong was in charge of the whole study and wrote the paper. G-H Shi, M Lu, Y-H Liu and J-C Yao collected and analyzed the data. L-X Li and H Shu were responsible for patients enrolled and they made a great contribution to modify the article. W-Y Li was responsible for study design.

Additional information

Funding

Financial & competing interests disclosure This study was supported by Minsheng Scientific Research (medical and health) Funded of Science and Technology Development of Shanghai Pudong New Area (2016 PKJ2016-Y58), Excellent Young Medical Personnel Funded of the Health and Family Planning Commission Construction of Shanghai Pudong New Area (2017 PWRq2017-14), Key Disciplines of Clinical Pharmacy of Health and Family Planning Commission of Shanghai Pudong New Area (2017 PWKxk2017-13), the Outstanding Leaders Training Program of Pudong Health Bureau of Shanghai (PWR12014-05), the Key Specialty Construction Project of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning (ZK2015B16), the Municipal Human Resources Development Program for Outstanding Leaders in Medical Disciplines in Shanghai (2017BR051). The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financialinvolvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.