Site and Situation Determinants of Land use Change: An Empirical Example

Abstract

This study provides a micro-level examination of the impact of site and situation characteristics on land use succession and conversion. Land use shifts between eight economic activities were associated with distance from the CBD, parcel acreage, floor area, and age of structure. Each land use activity displayed unique locational and site-specific features. Succession was highly centralized in the core; conversion was dominant in the periphery. The majority of successions involved shifts between single-family and multi-family uses. Conversions resulted primarily in new single-family housing. Multivariate analysis of variance tests revealed statistically significant differences in the location and physical characteristics of parcels involved in land use change vs unaffected parcels. Parcels involved in succession were typically closer to the CBD, had older structures, and were either significantly larger or smaller in floor area and acreage. Converted parcels were farther from the CBD than other vacant sites and had smaller acreages. Distance from the CBD was the most consistent variable in land use change. Greater sensitivity to the effect of land use change is urged in the formulation of land use policy.