The Art of the Better Forecast

Abstract

The editor discusses his views on an issue of interest to FAJ readers.

Editor’s Note: I thank Xi Li and Larry Siegel for helpful discussions.

Notes

¹Isaiah Berlin, The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History (Chicago: Elephant Paperbacks, 1993):3.

²Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005):2.

³In reality, the hedgehog/fox concept is a style continuum, not a simple dichotomy. Each style has strengths and weaknesses, but those with a dominant fox style edge out the hedgehogs in forecast accuracy, especially for long-term events.