PLACE TIES AND MIGRATION EXPECTATIONS OF A CENTRAL CITY POPULATION

Abstract

This research examines potential out-migration from central city Chicago to places outside the Chicago SMSA. Traditional explanations of potential out-migration have incorporated two types of factors: socioeconomic characteristics and ties to community of residence. We add to these the consideration of ties to other places that may contribute to the expectation of leaving a place. Using a sample of 347 Chicago residents, ties to places outside the Chicago area are first examined. Those based on previous residential experience, regular vacation behavior, and close relatives are found to be most common. These ties, in addition to ties to Chicago and socioeconomic characteristics, are then used as predictor variables in a multiple discriminant analysis that distinguishes between expected movers and expected stayers. Ties to Chicago appear to be most important, although an additional and unique influence is exerted by ties to places outside the Chicago area. Overall, 82% of both expected movers and expected stayers are correctly classified by the resulting discriminant function. The results illustrate the importance of nonemployment factors (such as place ties) in the explanation of out-migration and potential out-migration.