The Afghanistan-Pakistan Wars, 2008-2009: Micro-geographies, Conflict Diffusion, and Clusters of Violence

Abstract

A team of political geographers analyzes over 5,000 violent events collected from media reports for the Afghanistan and Pakistan conflicts during 2008 and 2009. The violent events are geocoded to precise locations and the authors employ an exploratory spatial data analysis approach to examine the recent dynamics of the wars. By mapping the violence and examining its temporal dimensions, the authors explain its diffusion from traditional foci along the border between the two countries. While violence is still overwhelmingly concentrated in the Pashtun regions in both countries, recent policy shifts by the American and Pakistani governments in the conduct of the war are reflected in a sizeable increase in overall violence and its geographic spread to key cities. The authors identify and map the clusters (hotspots) of conflict where the violence is significantly higher than expected and examine their shifts over the two-year period. Special attention is paid to the targeting strategy of drone missile strikes and the increase in their number and geographic extent by the Obama administration.

Keywords:

• Afghanistan
• Pakistan
• Taliban
• Al-Qaeda
• insurgency
• Islamic terrorism
• U.S. military
• International Security Assistance Forces
• Durand Line
• Tribal Areas
• Northwest Frontier Province
• ACLED
• NATO