Dynamics of Chinese Agricultural Trade Patterns

Abstract

The dynamics of Chinese agricultural trade patterns are examined with a focus on the differences between the periods before and after China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The analyses are based on the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) index, a modified Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) index. The discussion suggests that trade patterns are more persistent during the post-WTO period than during the pre-WTO period. It also indicates that the RSCA index distribution for Chinese agriculture is shifting to two extremes predicted by trade theories. However, the export shares of product categories are not in accordance with their comparative advantage positions. To benefit from trade liberalization in agriculture, China needs to adjust its agricultural policies. Recent policies have provided Chinese agriculture with a promising future, but much still has to be done.