Investor SAD Sentiment and Stock Returns in Taiwan

Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated that investor sentiment affects trading behavior and stock returns, and is correlated with seasons and weather. In addition, a great deal of evidence supports the main systematic factors of the Fama-French (FF) three-factor model. This study presents both the seasonal affective disorder (SAD) model and the SAD-FF model to examine the influence of season and weather on Taiwan stock returns from 1991 to 2010. To determine whether SAD variables affect stock returns, the SAD and SAD-FF models include the additional, explanatory variable of the business cycle factor.

Keywords:

• business cycle
• Fama-French three-factor model
• investor sentiment
• seasonal affective disorder (SAD)