Financial System Reform and Economic Growth in a Transition Economy: The Case of China, 1978-2004

Abstract

We examine the relationship between financial system reform and growth using data for China, which has undergone extensive financial liberalization since 1978. We construct an index of financial liberalization by combining the "Delphi method" and principal components analysis to combine eight aspects of the reform process for 1978 to 2004 and address the finance-growth nexus within a vector autoregressive model of growth, saving, and liberalization. We find robust evidence of significant positive effects of liberalization on growth in the short run and on accumulated growth in the long run but only weak effects on saving. Liberalization significantly causes both growth and saving, but there are no significant feedback effects to liberalization.

Keywords:

• China
• Delphi method
• economic growth
• financial liberalization