The prognostic values of 12 cirrhosis-relative noninvasive models in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background. Hepatocellular carcinogenesis is associated with the progression of cirrhosis, and the latter further aggravates tumor development and prognosis. The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic values of 12 cirrhosis-relative noninvasive models in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods. We retrospectively analyzed 363 HCC patients who either underwent partial hepatectomy (PH) or received transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TCAE). Preoperative data were collected to calculate these indices using the original formulas. Diagnostic accuracy of these models in detection of cirrhosis was evaluated by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Multivariate analyses were performed to assess the independent prognostic significance of the 12 indicators. Results. Aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index (APRI) and Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI) were found to be significant in discriminating cirrhotic patients from non-cirrhotic individuals. When the indices were expressed as continuous variables, multivariate analyses indicated that APRI and GUCI were independent indices to predict overall survival in patients underwent PH, with a hazard ratio (HR) value 1.04 (p = 0.005) and 1.07 (p = 0.001), respectively. In the cohort of TACE, APRI and GUCI were independently associated with survival as well. Conclusion. Of the 12 indices, APRI and GUCI were relatively accurate predictors of cirrhosis status as well as outcome of HCC. As only a limited study population was enrolled in the current study, larger cohorts are needed to validate our results.

Key Words::

• Liver cirrhosis
• hepatocellular carcinoma
• survival
• hepatectomy
• blood platelets
• alkaline phosphatase
• gamma-glutamyltransferase

Acknowledgements

The research work received grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81272644 and No.81201549). The authors gratefully acknowledge Ming-Hui Tai from the University of Kansas, America, for checking and revising the manuscript.

Author contributions

Pang Q participated in research design and writing of the paper; Zhang JY participated in writing of the paper and statistical analysis; Xu XS participated in data collection and sorting, statistical analysis, and revision of the paper; Song SD participated in data sorting and revision of the paper; Chen W, Zhou YY, and Miao RC participated in data collection and follow-up; Qu K and Liu SS participated in polishing of the paper; Dong YF and Liu C participated in research design.

Declaration of interest: The authors report no conflict of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.

Supplementary material available online

Supplementary Table I.