Cost-utility Analysis of Screening for Diabetic Retinopathy in Japan: A Probabilistic Markov Modeling Study

ABSTRACT

Purpose: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness for a screening interval longer than 1 year detecting diabetic retinopathy (DR) through the estimation of incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) based on the best available clinical data in Japan.

Methods: A Markov model with a probabilistic cohort analysis was framed to calculate incremental costs per QALY gained by implementing a screening program detecting DR in Japan. A 1-year cycle length and population size of 50,000 with a 50-year time horizon (age 40–90 years) was used. Best available clinical data from publications and national surveillance data was used, and a model was designed including current diagnosis and management of DR with corresponding visual outcomes. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed considering uncertainties in the parameters.

Results: In the base-case analysis, the strategy with a screening program resulted in an incremental cost of 5,147 Japanese yen (¥; US$64.6) and incremental effectiveness of 0.0054 QALYs per person screened. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ¥944,981 (US$11,857) per QALY. The simulation suggested that screening would result in a significant reduction in blindness in people aged 40 years or over (−16%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that in order to achieve both reductions in blindness and cost-effectiveness in Japan, the screening program should screen those aged 53–84 years, at intervals of 3 years or less.

Conclusions: An eye screening program in Japan would be cost-effective in detecting DR and preventing blindness from DR, even allowing for the uncertainties in estimates of costs, utility, and current management of DR.

• Cost-utility analysis
• diabetic retinopathy
• Japan
• Markov model
• screening

DECLARATION OF INTEREST

The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.

This study was supported by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan.

Supplementary Material Available Online

Supplementary Tables 1–7

Supplementary Figures 1 & 2