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Abstract
The paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi‐criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi‐criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio‐economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by‐passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects.
Santrauka
Straipsnyje analizuojami trys susisiekimo sistemos požiūriu Vilniaus miesto pletros scenarijai. Miesto pletros scenarijai, kaip sutelktoji pletra, decentralizuotai sutelktoji pletra ir ekstensyvioji pletra, vertinami daugiakriteriu metodu SAW ir at‐liekant Vilniaus miesto pletros scenariju modeliavima 2015 m. ir 2025 m. Daugiakriteriu metodu nustatoma pletros sce‐nariju prioritetine eile, vertinant Vilniaus miesto susisiekimo sistemos rodiklius. Modeliuojant pletros scenariju, nustatomi tokie rytinio piko metu rodikliai: kuro naudojimas, suminis nuvažiuotas atstumas, suminis keliones laikas. Modeliavimas remiasi esamais ir numatytais bendrojo Vilniaus plano miesto gatviu tinklo duomenimis, transportiniu rajonu dabartiniais ir prognozuojamais socialiniais bei ekonominiais duomenimis. Sukurtas modelis gali būti sekmingai naudojamas vertinant transporto infrastruktūros ir eismo organizavimo projektu itaka miesto susisiekimo sistemai.
