Proposing a neural network model to predict time and cost claims in construction projects

Abstract

Despite broad improvements in construction management, claims still are an inseparable part of many construction projects. Due to huge cases of claim in construction industry, this study argues that claim management is a significant factor in construction projects success. In this study, the most possible causes of these emerging claims are identified and statistically ranked by Probability-Impact Matrix. Subsequently, by classifying claims in different cases, the most important ones are ranked in order to achieve a better understanding of claim management in each project. In this regard, a new index is defined, being able to be applied in a variety of projects with different time and cost values, to calculate the amount of possible claims in each project along with related ratios with respect to the cost and time of each claim. This study introduces a new model to predict the frequency of claims in construction projects. By using the proposed model, the rate of possible claims in each project can be obtained. This model is validated by applying it into fitting case studies in Iran construction industry.

Keywords:

• claim management
• risk management
• artificial neural networks
• construction industry
• project management

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Vahidreza Yousefi

Vahidreza YOUSEFI. PhD Candidate of Construction and Project Management, University of Tehran, Iran. Master of Science in Civil Engineering, Construction Engineering and Management (2009) at Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST). MBA (Master of Business Administration) at Amirkabir University of Technology (AUT), 2012. Member of the PMI. Author of 8 scientific articles. Research interests: Project Management, Construction Management, Finance, Multiple Criteria Decision Making.

Siamak Haji Yakhchali

Siamak HAJI YAKHCHALI. PhD. Assistant Professor, University of Tehran, Department of Industrial Engineering Tehran, Iran. BSc 2003, Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology. M.Sc. 2005, Industrial Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology. PhD 2009, Industrial Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology. Post doc, 2009, Project Management, University College London. Assistant Professor, University of Tehran, Department of Industrial Engineering. Author of 15 scientific articles. Research interests: Project Management, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Strategic Project Management, Risk Management, Quality Management.

Mostafa Khanzadi

Mostafa KHANZADI. PhD Assistant Professor, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Department of Civil Engineering, Construction Engineering and Management, Tehran, Iran. First degree in civil engineering, University of Manchester, U.K. Master of Science at University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST), Manchester, U. K. PhD University of Hokkaido, Sapporo, Japan. Member of the ACI (American Concrete Institute) and JAI (Japan Architecture Institute). Author of 18 scientific articles. Research interests: Construction Management, Strategic Project Management, Construction Project Risks, Project Management, Decision Support System, Quality Management Process.

Ehsan Mehrabanfar

Ehsan MEHRABANFAR. MBA, Department of Management, Science & Technology, Amir Kabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. BSc in petroleum engineering from Petroleum University of Technology (2010), Master degree (2013). Involved in many research activities in different industries. Author of over 10 papers published in national and international top journals. Research interests include change, development studies, strategic planning, business and economics.

Jonas Šaparauskas

Jonas ŠAPARAUSKAS. Doctor, Associate Professor. Department of Construction Technology and Management. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. First degree in civil engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (1997). Master of Science (1999). Doctor (2004). Member of the EWG-MCDA Working Group within EURO since 2002. Author of about 20 scientific articles. Research interests: construction technology and organisation, project management, multiple criteria decision making.