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Abstract
The purpose of this study is to identify risks, discover rule base structure and the impact of risks by knowledge base system design in one of the Iran tourism destination. Based on tourism system approach, the factors of risks are divided in two dimensions: internal risks and external risks and seven criteria: political, economic, cultural-social, technological, environmental-health, functional and safe-security. Data were analyzed by fuzzy inference system and Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) synthesizing to construction of forecasting risk assessment system. Tourists’ perspectives towards the possibilities of risks were first assessed within seven risk factors and converted into a systematic structure within the structure of rough sets. Designing of a fuzzy expert system was dealt with using the created knowledge database. Then, the system’s sensitivity analysis was examined. The results indicate that the system can be a good way to estimate the risks and their fluctuation rates and impacts on the development of tourism destinations. The technological, social, functional and safety-security risks had the highest values in the system designed for minimum travel repeatability. The research suggests that it is important impact of risks and their interaction with each other on the future development of tourism destination.
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Notes on contributors
Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar
Hassanali FARAJI SABOKBAR. Associate Professor at the Department of Human Geography, University of Tehran. He is author four GIS and cartography books and publish more than 80 papers in spatial analysis and modeling, and spatial planning. His research interests include desktop, web and mobile GIS developing and develop some software such as SDSS for urban management and LBS in ABFA.
Athareh Ayashi
Athareh AYASHI received her MS on tourism planning (2012) and BS in cartography (2008) form the University of Tehran. Her research interests include spatial analysis, decision-making, risk assessment and tourism electronic marketing.
Ali Hosseini
Ali HOSSEINI received his PhD (2015), MS (2011) and BS (2009) degrees in human, geography and urban planning from the University of Tehran. His research interests are concerned with spatial planning, urban planning, multiple criteria decision making and quantitative methods. He has published papers and book chapters in several international and national journals.
Audrius Banaitis
Audrius BANAITIS. Professor at the Department of Construction Economics and Property Management of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. His research interests include project/risk management and project success, property management, sustainability and construction industry development, multiple criteria decision making: applications in construction and real estate.
Nerija Banaitienė
Nerija BANAITIENĖ. Associate Professor at the Department of Construction Economics and Property Management of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. Her research interests include project/risk management, total quality management, building life cycle analysis, multiple criteria decision making: applications in construction and real estate.
Raziyeh Ayashi
Raziyeh AYASHI received her MS in tourism planning (2014) form the Kharazmi University and BS in human geography (2010) form the University of Tehran. Her research interests include sustainable tourism, GIS, electronic tourism and marketing.