Investment analyses using fuzzy probability concept

Abstract

In an uncertain economic decision environment, an expert's knowledge about discounting cash flows consists of a lot of vagueness instead of randomness. Cash amounts and interest rates are usually estimated by using educated guesses based on expected values or other statistical techniques to obtain them. Fuzzy numbers can capture the difficulties in estimating these parameters. Fuzziness is one aspect of uncertainty. It is the vagueness found in the definition of a concept or the meaning of a term. Fuzzy memberships represent similarities of objects to imprecisely denned properties, while probabilities convey information about relative frequencies. In this paper, two types of investment analyses are made. First, fuzzy parameters are used in the stochastic investment analysis. Then, another investment analysis is examined by using the concept of probability of a fuzzy event.

Santrauka

Nepastovioje ekonominiu sprendimu aplinkoje eksperto žinios apie diskontuotus pinigu srautus yra daugiau neapibrežtos nei atsitiktines. Pinigu srautu dydis ir palūkanu normos paprastai nustatomos remiantis prognozuojamomis tiketinomis vertemis ar pasitelkiant kitus statistinius metodus. Nustatant šiuos rodiklius, kylančius sunkumus gali padeti sumažinti neapibrežtieji skaičiai. Tačiau neapibrežtumas yra tik vienas iš nepastovumo aspektu. Sudetinga nusakyti šio termino prasme ir koncepcija. Neapibrežtosios aibes išreiškia netiksliai ivardytas objektu savybes, o tikimybes perteikia informacija apie santykinius ivykiu dažnumus. Šiame straipsnyje atlikta dvieju tipu investiciju analize. Pirmiausia, atliekant stochastine investiciju analize, panaudoti neapibrežtuju aibiu elementai. Veliau atlikta investiciju analize, taikant tikimybine neapibrežtojo ivykio koncepcija.

Keywords:

• fuzzy number
• fuzzy event
• fuzzy probability
• investment

Reikšminiai žodžiai:

• neapibrežtasis skaičius
• neapibrežtasis ivykis
• neapibrežtoji tikimybe
• investicijos