IPCC releases Fifth Assessment Report
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report has been released, synthesizing current climate research from across the globe and concluding that “Human influence on the climate system is clear … evident in most regions of the globe”
The IPCC has released the Fifth Assessment Report, presenting a synthesis of current climate science research. Based on the review and analysis of several thousand published scientific papers, the report has been written and edited by scientists and experts in their field, drawn from 39 countries.
The report has clearly outlined that, since 1750, atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have all increased due to human activity. In 2011, concentrations of these GHGs were 391 ppm, 1803 ppb and 324 ppb, exceeding preindustrial levels by about 40, 150 and 20%, respectively, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land-use change emissions.
“Concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O now substantially exceed the highest concentrations recorded in ice cores during the past 800,000 years. The mean rates of increase in atmospheric concentrations over the past century are, with very high confidence, unprecedented in the last 22,000 years,” the report stated.
Averaged over 2002–2011, annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were reported as 8.3 GtC yr-1 (high confidence) and 8.7–10.3 GtC yr–1, 54% above the 1990 level; average annual emissions from anthropogenic land-use change were reported as 0.1–1.7 GtC yr-1 (medium confidence). As such, the report found that from 1750 to 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 335–395 GtC to the atmosphere, with deforestation and other land-use changes estimated to have released 100–260 GtC, resulting in cumulative anthropogenic emissions of 460–630 GtC. “Human influence on the climate system is clear,” the report stated, “evident in most regions of the globe.”
In order to limit the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone to less than 2°C since the period 1861–1880 with a probability of >33, >50 and >66%, it was reported to require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and approximately 1560 GtC, 0 and approximately 1210 GtC, and 0 and approximately 1000 GtC since that period, respectively. An amount of 446–616 GtC has already emitted by 2011; as such, scientists calculated that nearly half of all the CO2 that can be safely emitted without raising temperatures above a dangerous 2°C has already been emitted.
It was concluded that a large fraction of climate change is “irreversible on a human time-scale,” except if manmade CO2 emissions are removed out of the atmosphere over a long period. However, such geoengineering methods came with a warning by the IPCC, stating that there is insufficient knowledge to assess how effective such methods are, and that the “side effects and long-term consequences [are] on a global scale.”
IPCC report Co-Chair Thomas Stocker stated: “As a result of our past, present and expected future emissions of CO2, we are committed to climate change, and effects will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 stop.”
– Written by Ruth Williamson
Sources: Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5): www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf; IPCC Press Release: Human influence on climate clear, IPCC report says: www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/press_release_ar5_wgi_en.pdf
Carbon pollution standards for new power plants proposed by the US EPA
Clean Air Act standards to curb carbon emissions from new power plants have been proposed by the US EPA. Pollution standards for existing power plants will also be established by the Agency as part of the President’s Climate Action Plan.
The EPA has proposed separate standards for new gas- and coal-fired power plants, based on over 2.5 million public comments, and information and developments in the power sector. New large natural gas-fired turbines would be required to meet a limit of 1000 pounds of CO2 per MWh, while new small natural gas-fired turbines would need to meet a limit of 1100 pounds of CO2 per MWh. New coal-fired units would also need to meet a limit of 1100 pounds of CO2 per MWh, but would have the option to meet a slightly tighter limit if they choose to average emissions over multiple years.
Power plants account for approximately one-third of GHG emissions in the USA and there are currently no national limits in place for the amount of carbon new power plants can emit. “By taking commonsense action to limit carbon pollution from new power plants, we can slow the effects of climate change and fulfill our obligation to ensure a safe and healthy environment for our children,” said Gina McCarthy, Administrator of the US EPA.
The proposal builds on the efforts of individual states to move towards a cleaner power sector by ensuring that new power plants are built with clean technology and have carbon emission limits. McCarthy commented, “These standards will also spark the innovation we need to build the next generation of power plants, helping grow a more sustainable clean energy economy.”
In addition to the proposal for new power plants, the US EPA has initiated the development of emission standards for existing power plants – these are due to be proposed by 1st June 2014.
– Written by Kasumi Crews
Source: EPA proposes carbon pollution standards for new power plants/Agency takes important step to reduce carbon pollution from power plants as part of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan: http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/bd4379a92ceceeac8525735900400c27/da9640577ceacd9f85257beb006cb2b6!opendocument
Novel graphene membranes demonstrate selective CO2 transport
In a study recently published in Science, researchers from Hanyang University (Seoul, Korea) reported the development of a novel graphene-based membrane with carbon capture properties.
The team engineered membranes using graphene and graphene oxide sheets, and demonstrated how gas flow channels and pores can be controlled by different stacking methods, leading to selective gas diffusion. High CO2 permeance and CO2/N2 selectivity was observed with well-interlocked graphene oxide membranes in high relative humidity. The technology is therefore suitable for membrane-based separation processes for post-combustion flue gas.
Speaking to Carbon Management, Ho Bum Park, a lead author of the study, explained “An important cost driver in current carbon capture membrane technologies is the energy requirement for maintaining the driving force for the membrane separation. The flue gas must be kept at atmospheric pressure and the concentrated CO2 stream kept under vacuum conditions. We expect current ultrathin graphene oxide membranes to meet such conditions.”
Park commented on their current work involving the carbon capture membrane technology, stating: “We are working on scale-up studies such as large-area membrane coating, roll-to-roll coating processes, membrane module fabrication and membrane processes suitable for this new material.”
– Written by Kasumi Crews
Source: Kim HW, Yoon HW, Yoon SM et al. Selective gas transport through few-layered graphene and graphene oxide membranes. Science 342(6154), 91–95 (2013).
International Civil Aviation Organization committee agrees to regulate aviation emissions
The UN’s aviation body, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), has approved an agreement amongst its member states to formulate a strategy to curb carbon emissions from 2020. A proposal for the EU to apply its own ETS to foreign airlines in the meantime was rejected.
Delegates at the ICAO’s 38th Assembly have endorsed a plan to develop a global market-based mechanism (MBM) for international aviation. The proposal is to be drafted over the next 3 years, in time for the next ICAO generally assembly in 2016, with the MBM expected to be implemented in 2020. ICAO Council President Roberto Kobeh González commented, “This MBM agreement is an historic milestone for air transport and for the role of multilateralism in addressing global climate challenges.”
The ICAO delegates also voted to restrict the ability of the EU to continue applying the ETS to foreign airlines until the global MBM is in place. The EU’s Climate Change Commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, stated “While we would have liked more countries to accept our regional scheme, progress was made overall.”
Whilst the Environmental Defense Fund (NY, USA) commended the ICAO for agreeing to put in place a plan to limit carbon emissions, they criticized the decision concerning the ETS. “A bedrock principle of international law is that nations have the sovereign right to limit pollution emitted in their borders,” said Annie Petsonk, Environmental Defense Fund International Counsel.
The aviation sector is the first major industry sector to set a global framework to cut carbon emissions; however, there has been a mixed response regarding the decisions made. Samantha Smith, WWF leader of the Global Climate & Energy Initiative commented, “Right after the recent IPCC release, this was the first chance for governments in ICAO to take decisive action, and they failed.” Smith expressed concern over the timeline of the strategy, stating “The science is clearer than ever – 2020 is too late.”
– Written by Kasumi Crews
Sources: Dramatic MBM agreement and solid global plan endorsements help deliver landmark ICAO 38th assembly: www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/mbm-agreement-solid-global-plan-endoresements.aspx; ICAO committee agrees on path forward to limit aviation emissions, but U.S. leadership will be critical to delivering results: www.edf.org/media/icao-committee-agrees-path-forward-limit-aviation-emissions-us-leadership-will-be-critical; ICAO forgoes immediate emissions reductions for promise of a future global plan: www.wwf.eu/?211115/WWF-ICAO-Forgoes-Immediate-Emissions-Reductions-for-Promise-of-a-Future-Global-Plan
Ireland’s GHG emissions increase for first time in 6 years
Provisional GHG emission figures released by the Irish EPA have shown that Ireland will meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations, but that GHG emissions increased by 0.58 million tonnes (1.0%), totaling 57.92 million tonnes in 2012 and reversing a 6-year downward trend in emissions since 2006.
The main emissions changes were identified from the sections: energy (principally electricity), increasing by 5.9%; agriculture, increasing by 3.0%; industry and commercial, increasing by 1.6%; transport, decreasing by 3.5%; and residential, decreasing by 5.9%.
At 32.1% of the total, agriculture remained the single largest contributor to overall emissions, followed by energy and transport at 21.9 and 18.8%, respectively. The higher emissions from the energy sector were attributed to an increase in the use of coal in electricity generation, underpinned by lower coal and carbon prices. Higher agricultural emissions were attributed to higher animal numbers, increased in line with the expansion of the sector under Food Harvest 2020.
Dara Lynott, Deputy Director General at the Irish EPA, commented “increases in emissions in 2012 show that environmental pressures remain, and will increase, particularly as the economy starts to recover.” Lynott also noted that the figures “underline the requirement to decouple emissions from economic growth. They also point to the urgent need for a higher carbon price which would provide an incentive for using less CO2 intensive energy sources, such as natural gas.”
– Written by Ruth Williamson
Source: Higher greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 point to significant challenges in delivering a low-carbon, sustainable economy for Ireland: www.epa.ie/newsandevents/news/name,52406,en.html