55
Views
6
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
General Paper

System/scenario duality—a supporting equivalence

Pages 1344-1360 | Received 10 Jun 2011, Accepted 31 May 2013, Published online: 21 Dec 2017

References

  • AmaraRLipinskiAJBusiness Planning for an Uncertain Future: Scenarios & Strategies (Policy Studies on Business and Economics Series)1983
  • Bernard C (1865, repub 1957). An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine. Dover: New York.
  • Birt A (2012). Private telephone communication. Stellenbosch, 10 December.
  • BishopPHinesACollinsTThe current state of scenario development: An overview of techniquesForesight20079152510.1108/14636680710727516
  • BörjesonLMattias HöjerMDreborgK-HEkvallTFinnvedenGScenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guideFutures200638772373910.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002
  • BradfieldRWrightGBurtGCairnsGvan der HeijdenKThe origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planningFutures200537879581210.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
  • Burchsted S and Crews C (2003). Systemic scenarios: Creating synergy rhough scenarios and systems thinking. Unpublished Master’s Thesis, University of Houston-Clear Lake, Clear Lake, TX.
  • BurtGWhy are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuitiesTechnological Forecasting & Social Change200774673174910.1016/j.techfore.2006.08.010
  • BurtGLearning the future fasterFutures201042426543410.1016/j.futures.2009.11.012
  • BurtGTowards the integration of system modelling with scenario planning to support strategy: The case of the UK energy industryJournal of the Operational Research Society201162583083910.1057/jors.2010.47
  • ChecklandPSystems Thinking, Systems Practice1981
  • ChecklandPScholesJSoft Systems Methodology in Action1990
  • CoyleRSystems Dynamics Modelling: A Practical Approach1996
  • CoyleRScenario thinking and strategic modelingThe Oxford Handbook of Strategy2003308349
  • CoyleRCrawshayRSuttonLFutures assessment by field anomaly relaxation: A review and appraisalFutures1994261254310.1016/0016-3287(94)90088-4
  • DortmansPJEiffeEAn examination of future scenarios using historical analogyFutures200436101049106210.1016/j.futures.2004.03.011
  • EdenCUsing cognitive mapping for Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA)Rational Analysis for a Problematical World1989
  • GodetMDurancePCoatesJStrategic foresightTechnological Forecasting and Social Change20107791423161010.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.008
  • HowickSAckermannFAndersenDLinking event thinking with structural thinking: Methods to improve client value in projectsSystem Dynamics Review200622211314010.1002/sdr.332
  • IshikawaMTodaMMoriSKayaYAn application of the extended cross impact method to generating scenarios of social change in JapanTechnological Forecasting and Social Change198018321723310.1016/0040-1625(80)90024-4
  • Jones M (2009). Private communication. Oxford, 18 August.
  • Jones M (2012). Private telephone communication. Stellenbosch, 11 December.
  • KahnemanDThinking Fast and Slow2011
  • KahnemanDTverskyAProspect theory: An analysis of decision under riskEconometrica197947326329110.2307/1914185
  • KayaYIshikawaMMoriSA revised cross-impact method and its applications to the forecast of urban transport technologyTechnological Forecasting and Social Change19791432435710.1016/0040-1625(79)90080-5
  • Kirkup M (2012). Private communication. Exeter, 23 September.
  • KrauthJDuinHSchimmelAA comparison of tools for strategic simulation and scenario generation with special emphasis on ‘soft factors’Simulation Practice and Theory199861233310.1016/S0928-4869(97)00005-0
  • MercerDSimpler scenariosManagement Decision19953393210.1108/00251749510084662
  • MoayerSBahriAPAHybrid intelligent scenario generator for business strategic planning by using ANFISExpert Systems with Applications20093647729773710.1016/j.eswa.2008.09.046
  • NowackMEndrikatJGuentherEReview of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerationsTechnological Forecasting & Social Change20117891603161510.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.006
  • O’BrienFMeadowsMDeveloping a visioning methodology: Visioning choices for the future of operational researchJournal of the Operational Research Society200758555757510.1057/palgrave.jors.2602259
  • O’BrienFMeadowsMMurtlandMCreating and using scenarios—Exploring alternative possible futures and their impact on strategic decisionsSupporting Strategy: Frameworks, Methods and Models2007211247
  • OgilvyJFuture studies and the human sciences: The case for normative scenariosFutures Research Quarterly199281565
  • PishvaaeMSFatheMJolaiFA fuzzy clustering-based method for scenario analysis in strategic planning: The case of an Asian pharmaceutical companySouth African Journal of Business Management200839321
  • PostmaTJBMLieblFHow to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?Technological Forecasting and Social Change200572216117310.1016/S0040-1625(03)00152-5
  • PowellJHAn application of a network-based futures method to strategic business planningJournal of the Operational Research Society199748985787210.1057/palgrave.jors.2600438
  • PowellJHGenerating networks for strategic planning by successive key factor modificationJournal of the Operational Research Society200152436938210.1057/palgrave.jors.2601101
  • PowellJHCoyleRGA network based futures method for strategic business planningJournal of the Operational Research Society199748979380310.1057/palgrave.jors.2600437
  • PowellJHCoyleRGIdentifying strategic action in highly politicised contexts using agent-based qualitative system dynamicsJournal of the Operational Research Society200556778779810.1057/palgrave.jors.2601869
  • PorterMCompetitive Advantage1985
  • RhyneRWhole pattern futures projection using field anomaly relaxationTechnological Forecasting and Social Change198119433136010.1016/0040-1625(81)90005-6
  • RosenheadJRational Analysis for a Problematical World1989
  • SaritasONugrohoYMapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approachTechnological Forecasting & Social Change201279350952910.1016/j.techfore.2011.09.005
  • SchnaarsSPHow to develop and use scenariosLong Range Planning198720110111410.1016/0024-6301(87)90038-0
  • SchwartzPThe Art of the Long View1996
  • Schultz W (2009). SCENARIO BUILDING: The Manoa Approach ‘maximizing difference’, http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbmanoa.shtml, accessed January 2013.
  • SevaguruNSafaMSScenario planning approach to strategic management of small travel business in MalaysiaInternational Journal of Business and Mangement Science2009216177
  • ShoemakerPJHScenario planning as a tool for strategic thinkingSloan Management Review19953622540
  • SoetantoRDaintyARJGoodierCIAustinSAUnravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A method for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contextsFutures201143389090710.1016/j.futures.2011.06.013
  • StermanJBusiness Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World2000
  • van der HeijdenKScenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation1996
  • van ’t KloosterSAMarjoleinBAvanAsseltPractising the scenario-axes techniqueFutures2006381153010.1016/j.futures.2005.04.019
  • van NottenPWFRotmansJvan AsseltMBARothmanDSAn updated scenario typologyFutures200335542344310.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3
  • WeilHBApplication of system dynamics to corporate strategy: An evolution of issues and frameworksSystem Dynamics Review200723213715610.1002/sdr.373
  • WilsonBSystems: Concepts Methodologies and Applications1990

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.