REFERENCES
- Bernhardt, D., Murillo, C., and Kutsoati, E. (2006), “Who Herds?” Journal of Financial Economics, 80, 657–675.
- Chen, K., Fine, L.R., and Huberman, B.A. (2004), “Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information-Aggregation Mechanisms,” Management Science, 50, 983–994.
- Clair, B., and Letscher, D. (2007), “Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools,” Operations Research, 55, November-December 2007, 1163–1177.
- Cowgill, B., Wolfers, J., and Zitzewtiz, E. (2009), “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google,” working paper, . available at http://www.dartmouthedu/∼ericz/
- Ferguson, T.S., and Genest, C. (2003), “Toetjes Na,” in The Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, 42, 169–183.
- Gigerenzer, G., and Goldstein, D.G. (1996), “Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality,” Psychological Review, 103, 650–669.
- Gomes, R., and Waikar, S. (2008), “Professional Forecasters: Innocent Until Proven Strategic,” available at insight.kellogg.northewestern.edu
- Kim, O., Lim, S.C., and Shae, K.W. (2001), “The Inefficiency of the Mean Analyst Forecast as a Summary Forecast of Earnings,” Journal of Accounting Research, 39, 329–335.
- Lee, M.D., Zhang, S., and Shi, J. (2011), “The Wisdom of the Crowd Playing the Price is Right,” Memory and Cognition, 39, 914–923.
- Lichtendahl, K.C., Jr., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., and Pfeifer, P.E. (2013), “The Wisdom of Competing Crowds,” Operations Research, 61, 1383–1398.
- Lichtendahl, K.C., Jr., and Winkler, R.L. (2007), “Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters,” Management Science, 53, 1745–1755.
- Metrick, A. (1996), “,” , 30, 159–172.
- Osborne, M.J. (2004), An Introduction to Game Theory, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Ottaviani, M., and Sorensen, P.N. (2006), “The Strategy of Professional Forecasting,” Journal of Financial Economics, 81, 441–446.
- Pfeifer, P.E. (2014), “The Promise of Pick-the-Winners Contests for the Purpose of Producing Crowd Probability-Forecasts,” Darden School Working Paper No., DSWP-14–03, University of Virginia.
- Steele, J.M., and Zidek, J. (1980), “Optimal Strategies for Second Guessers,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 596–601.
- Surowiecki, J. (2005), The Wisdom of Crowds, New York: Anchor Books.
- Zitzewtiz, E. (2001), “Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers,” working paper, available at http://www.dartmouth.edu/∼ericz/